The NBA Draft is an annual event that captivates fans, executives, and analysts alike. Every year, teams invest significant resources and time into scouting young players who will potentially become cornerstones of their franchise. The question at the heart of the draft process is: Are these young athletes the next great stars, or are they simply draft-day gambles? This dilemma becomes even more complicated when discussing “up-and-coming talent”—players who may not have fully proven themselves on the biggest stages or who possess a raw, untapped potential that could either explode or fizzle out.
In a piece for The Athletic, Sam Vecenie—one of the most respected NBA draft analysts—addressed the ever-present tension between taking a high-upside risk and drafting a player who is more polished but less explosive. This dilemma represents a central theme for NBA teams as they assess the future of their organizations. With high stakes on the line, Vecenie’s insights on the benefits and drawbacks of selecting up-and-coming talent are critical for understanding the decisions made on draft night.
One of the key arguments in favor of selecting up-and-coming talent is the potential for that player to develop into a superstar. Vecenie frequently emphasizes that NBA teams should not just be looking for good players, but rather the best players who can change the course of a franchise. The reality is that, in today’s league, only a select few players can truly elevate a team to championship contention. By investing in raw talent with high upside, teams give themselves a chance to land the next LeBron James, Luka Dončić, or Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Vecenie points out that players who may not immediately dominate at the college level or in international competition could still be on the precipice of something special. Take Giannis, for example. The Greek Freak’s path to superstardom was not paved with a decorated college career. He was an unknown quantity when the Milwaukee Bucks selected him with the 15th pick in the 2013 NBA Draft. Now, he is regarded as one of the most dominant players in the NBA, winning two MVP awards and leading the Bucks to an NBA championship in 2021.
The benefit here is clear: by taking a chance on a high-upside player, teams might uncover the next generational talent. The potential rewards far outweigh the risks if the player develops into a superstar.
2. The Rising Trend of Analytics
In recent years, analytics have become a huge part of the NBA draft process. These data-driven insights help teams understand not just a player’s current skill set, but also their future trajectory. Sam Vecenie has highlighted how modern basketball analytics have made it easier to identify players who may be hidden gems—those who, with proper development, could significantly outpace expectations.
Players with unconventional skill sets—such as exceptional length, athleticism, or advanced metrics in certain areas like shooting efficiency—often go overlooked in traditional scouting. Teams that embrace the analytical revolution may find themselves ahead of the curve, drafting players who, based on conventional scouting methods, wouldn’t seem ready to make an immediate impact.
For instance, players like Rudy Gobert and Kawhi Leonard entered the NBA as raw talents. They were not necessarily expected to be the stars they became, but their physical attributes and untapped potential were evident, and analytics pointed to the likelihood of significant growth. With the correct investment in their development, these players became stars in the league.
3. The Long-Term Reward
Vecenie stresses that NBA teams should not always focus on immediate results. While it’s important to draft players who can contribute right away, the goal should be to build a sustainable, long-term contender. Drafting up-and-coming talent might not lead to an immediate return on investment, but over time, it could prove to be the foundation of a championship team.
In an era where teams are reluctant to give up their stars in trade deals or free agency, having a young core of talented players on affordable contracts allows a franchise to build around them and make moves to compete for a title. Teams that take risks on players with high upside often see the biggest rewards in the long run, especially as other teams focus on short-term wins and forget to plan for the future.
The Golden State Warriors are a prime example of this. While they initially built their championship-contending team around established stars like Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson, they also took risks on younger players like James Wiseman and Moses Moody. Though these players have not yet reached their potential, the hope is that as they develop, they will join the team’s championship core in the coming seasons.
The Case Against Drafting Up-and-Coming Talent
1. The Risk of Busts
While the upside of selecting up-and-coming talent is tempting, the downside is a very real possibility: the risk of a bust. Vecenie acknowledges that many players simply do not develop as expected. For every Giannis or Kawhi Leonard, there are countless others who did not live up to their potential, whether due to injury, work ethic, or simply an inability to translate their skills to the NBA level.
The risk of a bust is particularly high with young players who have not yet faced elite competition. Players who show flashes of potential in less competitive environments may struggle to adjust to the speed, skill level, and physical demands of the NBA. A player might dominate in a smaller league or on an individual team but fail to mesh with a system or the broader demands of professional basketball.
Vecenie argues that the more a player is untested or raw, the greater the chance they will fail to develop as expected. For teams with limited resources or those already rebuilding, drafting a high-risk player could set them back further. If the player does not pan out, the team risks wasting a valuable draft pick and missing out on a more reliable, ready-to-contribute prospect.
2. The Need for Immediate Impact Players
One of the main reasons NBA teams hesitate to draft high-upside, raw prospects is the need for immediate contributors. Some teams simply cannot afford to wait on a player’s development. Whether because of the pressure to win now or because they have an aging roster, certain franchises require players who can come in and make an immediate impact.
Vecenie notes that while development is essential, teams also need talent that can play from day one. Teams drafting a player who won’t contribute in the short term could end up losing ground in the standings or even face playoff elimination. Teams like the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, for example, are often in the hunt for playoff spots and may not be willing to take a risk on a project player when they could draft someone who can help immediately.
In this regard, the balance between drafting for immediate impact and long-term potential becomes a delicate dance. Teams with a strong veteran core might not want to invest in a project player who will need years to develop. Instead, they might opt for a safer pick who will contribute to the team’s success right away.
3. Developmental Pitfalls and Overestimating Talent
Even when teams invest heavily in the development of young players, the process can be fraught with challenges. Vecenie cautions that not all players develop at the same rate, and some may never reach their projected ceiling. The NBA’s developmental system is not perfect, and many highly touted prospects never make the leap into a starting role or all-star consideration.
Additionally, the culture of player development in the NBA has evolved to place more emphasis on player autonomy and individual branding. This can sometimes create an environment where players focus more on their personal growth and status rather than contributing to the success of the team. As Vecenie notes, some players may fall prey to the distractions of being a young, high-potential talent and struggle to commit to the work required to develop their game consistently.
The risk of overestimating a player’s talent is particularly prevalent when scouting high school or international prospects who may not have faced top-tier competition. For example, players coming out of the G-League or less competitive leagues may look incredible on tape, but the gap in competition level might lead to overconfidence in their development potential.
The Middle Ground: The Best of Both Worlds?
Sam Vecenie also explores the idea of finding the balance between the high-risk, high-reward up-and-coming talent and the proven, polished prospect. Teams should ideally aim for a player who has a combination of significant upside while also possessing traits that project well for the NBA. This middle ground allows for a measure of safety while still giving the team a chance to hit big on a future star.
Players who may not be immediate stars but show the potential for growth in areas such as shooting, playmaking, and defense can offer an intriguing balance. Vecenie advocates for teams to look for players with a high basketball IQ, strong work ethic, and versatility—traits that are harder to teach but often present in players who develop into long-term NBA contributors.
The decision to select up-and-coming talent on draft night is fraught with uncertainty. Sam Vecenie’s analysis highlights the critical question facing every NBA team: Are you willing to take the gamble on a raw talent with immense upside, or do you need a player who is ready to contribute immediately?
The answer to this question depends on a variety of factors, including team needs, the current roster, the ability to develop players, and the long-term vision of the franchise. As Vecenie suggests, while the risk of drafting unproven talent is significant, the potential rewards can be game-changing. Teams that balance the need for immediate impact with the chance of discovering a future superstar will be best positioned for sustained success.
At the end of the day, drafting in the NBA is as much about risk management as it is about talent evaluation. The path to greatness often comes with its share of twists and turns, and the most successful teams are the ones that navigate those risks wisely, all while remaining committed to finding and developing the next great star.
