Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will not end up NBA champion this season

Oklahoma City has been guaranteed for several weeks already to finish at the top of their conference. She has a good ten victories in advance on her runner -up and, even stronger, she would be in the race to finish first even by counting only the successes she won by winning by 10 points or more (50!). And yet, the level gap with its pursuers may not be as gaping as the season's course could suggest.

The Thunder displays for example almost the same assessment as the Lakers (35-13 for OKC against 34-14 for the) on the duels between franchises located west. The Rockets (31-18) or the Timberwolves (31-19), although seventh, are not so far behind it either. This is explained in particular by the fact that the players of Mark Daigneault had a historic and unprecedented season by winning 29 of the 30 clashes against training from the other conference … overall much less raised. But, to go to the end, you must first get out of the west.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and its partners remain the favorites. But without necessarily having a very important room for maneuver. For example, they suffered against other western armadas. The Thunder recently underwent a heavy defeat against Lakers (27 points apart) but also lost twice against the Nuggets, twice against the Warriors, twice against the Rockets or twice against the Wolves. All these teams have the particularity of being able to compete with Oklahoma City on the physical level. The results against the other against the other teams of the Top-4 is 6-5 and 13-9 against those of the Top-7.

The Thunder usually hurts its opponents thanks to its intensity and the length and scope of its rear. But Los Angeles, Houston or Denver have a respondent at this level. Nuggets, through Nikola Jokic, or Lakers with Luka Doncic, can also count on even more radiant individuality than the best OKC player. It is not trivial, even if it is obviously a collective sport. The team with the most talented basketball player in the series ends up taking over a large majority of the time.

Last week's match against the Lakers was particularly interesting since it highlighted some potential Thunder flaws. The one -way meeting, referred the image of a tactical victory of Los Angeles: the men of JJ Redick have constantly exploited advantageous duels to offer themselves easy baskets (with some exploits of Doncic, James and Reaves in the Lot) while their opponents have often had difficulty putting their points (only 99 in total).

The Angelinos notably tried the best possible to block access to the circle to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander by sending aid each time the Canadian Superstar passed the first curtain. The candidate (and favorite) at the MVP did not draw the slightest free throw, for the first time this season. He put his 26 points, but without weighing. Building a “wall” around the racket, maintaining a man against SGA on each drive, has already worked in the past. The goal is to force him to let go of the ball for a player set apart behind the three-point line and take the bet that the second knives of Oklahoma City will not be skillful enough to make the defense pay. They shot 10 out of 32 behind the arc against Los Angeles.

The Mavericks adopted an almost similar strategy in playoffs last year. Again successfully. Cason Wallace (33% on the series), Josh Giddey (18%), Chet Holmgren (22% in addition to 4 attempts behind the arc) and especially Luguentz Dort (31% in almost 7 attempts!) Were all left free when the defense tightened on Gilgeous-Alexander. The Thunder has more snipers this season (Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso) and Dort has made a big three-point progress. But they are not players to duty by chance. The pressure can be huge on their shoulders, especially arrived at a certain stage of the competition. It is a safe bet that OKC's address is much more fluctuating behind the arc. And despite its iron defense, this team remains very dependent on its ability to plant from afar.

The pressure will also be very heavy on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Who other than him to create games when possessions become more and more tense? Lakers can rely on three exceptional playmakers. Nuggets have two. The Thunder mainly counts on SGA, even if Jalen Williams, All-Star really spent a milestone. But in hot moments, the ball will be in the Canadian's hands. The attention of the defense fully on him. He generally knows how to ensure his stats but can he constantly raise his team?

The rear that led their franchise at the end are not so numerous since Michael Jordan. There was Kobe Bryant, of course. Dwyane Wade in 2006, even if he could count on Shaquille O'Neal. Stephen Curry too. But the latter is able to draw from afar, which is not necessarily the biggest strong point in Gilgeous-Alexander. It is an incredible scorer, almost unstoppable in one-of-one. But he would have to succeed in absolutely historical playoffs to lead OKC to the trophy.

The Thunder progresses season after season. He had already finished first in his conference last year and he did even better in 2025, even breaking the record of the franchise in passing. Oklahoma City was released in the second round in 2024 and can legitimately claim to be better this year. But the walk may still be a bit higher to go directly to the title. It has already happened in the past, of course. But with such a young team? Rarely. Or never. Gilgeous-Alexander may be ready but what about Williams and Holmgren? They each showed small limits in playoffs last season. They have talent, but still little bottle. Winning four series in a row requires a completely different level of experience. It may still be a failure before really targeting the summit.