Tennessee baseball head coach Tony Vitello disagrees with a call by the umpires during a NCAA baseball game between the Tennessee Volunteers and Florida Gators at Lindsey Nelson Stadium in Knoxville, Tenn., on Friday, March 14, 2025.
National Outlet Has Head-Scratching NCAA Tournament Projection for Tennessee Vols After Strong Season Finish
In what can only be described as one of the most puzzling moves of the NCAA Tournament projection season, a major national outlet has released a bracketology update that has left Tennessee Volunteers fans scratching their heads — and rightfully so. Despite a strong finish to the regular season, key wins in SEC play, and an elite-level NET ranking, the Volunteers were projected as a No. 6 seed, far below what both analytics and common sense suggest.
The projection, published by Basketball Focus Weekly (BFW), has sparked outrage among fans, confusion from analysts, and even veiled jabs from rival coaches. Many are questioning how a program that finished top three in the SEC, defeated multiple ranked opponents, and boasts one of the most balanced rosters in the country could be so dramatically undervalued.
This isn’t just about seeding — it’s about respect, legitimacy, and a Tennessee program that continues to rise under head coach Rick Barnes. So how did we get here, and why is this bracket causing such an uproar?
A Season That Demanded Respect
To understand the controversy, we first need to appreciate what Tennessee has accomplished in 2024–2025. The Vols finished the regular season with a 25–6 record, including a 14–4 mark in SEC play. That included signature wins over top programs like Kentucky, Alabama, and Arkansas — all projected to be seeded higher than Tennessee in the same bracket.
The Vols’ resume is stacked with quality wins: multiple Quadrant 1 victories, dominant home performances at Thompson-Boling Arena, and a non-conference schedule that featured wins over Gonzaga and Michigan State. They also swept Vanderbilt and survived brutal road stretches that included trips to Florida and Auburn.
Statistically, the Vols ranked top-10 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency and top-25 in offensive rating, according to KenPom. The team also finished the regular season with a NET ranking of No. 9 — a number that typically suggests a 2- or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament.
And yet, Basketball Focus Weekly listed the Vols as a 6-seed in the South region, paired against the red-hot 11-seed Boise State in the first round. In the hypothetical second round? A matchup against a projected 3-seed Baylor — a team Tennessee defeated earlier in the year.
Bracketology Breakdown: Where It Went Wrong
Analysts were quick to point out the inconsistencies. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, CBS Sports’ Jerry Palm, and NCAA.com’s Andy Katz all had Tennessee slotted as a No. 3 seed in their latest projections. The committee traditionally favors high NET rankings, quality road wins, and strength of schedule — categories where the Vols excel.
“What makes this projection so bizarre is how completely it ignores the metrics,” said ESPN’s Jay Bilas. “You have to wonder if there’s an agenda or if it’s just lazy analysis. Tennessee has done everything the committee claims to value.”
Indeed, Tennessee boasts a strength of schedule (SOS) ranked in the top 10 nationally and an impressive 7–5 record in Quadrant 1 games — tied with bluebloods like Kansas and Duke. Not to mention, they suffered no losses outside of Quadrant 2.
So what’s the explanation for the 6-seed projection?
The outlet offered a vague rationale, citing “inconsistency in key road games” and “a lack of a true go-to scorer.” That’s an argument many find unconvincing, considering the Vols’ roster depth and balanced scoring attack. Guard Zakai Zeigler leads the team in assists and steals, while forward Jonas Aidoo has emerged as a dominant force in the paint. The team doesn’t rely on one player — and that’s exactly what makes them so dangerous.
The Rick Barnes Factor
There’s another potential angle that some analysts have floated: skepticism toward Rick Barnes’ tournament history. Fair or not, Barnes has been criticized over the years for early exits in March Madness despite having high-seeded teams. His 2019 Tennessee squad was a No. 2 seed but fell in the Sweet 16 to Purdue in overtime. In 2022, the Vols were upset in the second round by 11-seed Michigan.
But to punish this year’s team for the past is short-sighted.
“This Tennessee team is not your typical Rick Barnes squad,” said Seth Greenberg of ESPN. “They’ve got the defense, the experience, and most importantly, they’ve got poise. They’re battle-tested. What happened in 2022 doesn’t apply here.”
Barnes himself responded with class, stating in a press conference that bracket projections “don’t mean much until Selection Sunday,” and that his team “just wants to keep getting better every day.”
Still, even Barnes admitted the projection was “a little surprising.”
Fan Reaction: Outrage and Ridicule
If the team took the high road, Tennessee fans were quick to go the opposite direction — and who could blame them?
Social media lit up with frustration. On X (formerly Twitter), the hashtag #RespectTheVols began trending shortly after the bracket release. Popular message boards like VolQuest and RockyTopInsider were flooded with posts dissecting the snub.
“How do you beat Bama and Kentucky, finish top 10 in the NET, and get seeded like a mid-major?” one fan wrote. “This is the most disrespect I’ve seen since 2014.”
Memes mocking the projection went viral. One post featured the famous scene from The Office where Michael Scott screams “NOOOOO!” — captioned with “Vol Nation reading the new bracket.”
Even national media figures chimed in. Barstool Sports tweeted, “Somebody tell the committee Tennessee is in the SEC, not the SoCon.”
SEC Bias — Or Lack Thereof?
One of the more compelling arguments from Tennessee supporters is that this might be part of a broader disrespect toward the SEC as a basketball conference. While the league has traditionally been seen as football-first, recent years have seen a basketball renaissance. Programs like Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn have all reached the Elite Eight or better in the past five years.
Yet, some outlets still favor the Big Ten and Big 12 in their bracketology, despite SEC teams consistently outperforming them in March.
“It’s a lazy narrative that the SEC is football-only,” said CBS analyst Jon Rothstein. “Tennessee has proven time and again that they belong in the national conversation. The idea that they’re somehow unworthy of a top-4 seed is absurd.”
Bulletin Board Material?
While the projection might feel like a slap in the face now, it could become a powerful motivator come tournament time. Barnes’ squads have always played with a chip on their shoulder, and this year’s team is no different.
Senior guard Josiah-Jordan James didn’t mince words when asked about the projection: “We see it. We hear it. And we’re going to use it. They’ll see what this team is about soon enough.”
Aidoo echoed the sentiment. “We’re not worried about seed lines. We just want to line up and play. But if they want to doubt us, that’s their mistake.”
This Tennessee squad has the makeup of a team that could go on a run: a lockdown defense, veteran leadership, a clutch point guard, and a head coach hungry to silence his critics.
Does It Matter?
Ultimately, the only bracket that counts is the one revealed on Selection Sunday. But narratives matter. Perceptions matter. And when a national outlet underrates a team like Tennessee, it can impact more than just fan morale — it can shape committee opinions, media coverage, and even game scheduling.
It’s also a reminder of how far the Tennessee basketball program has come under Rick Barnes. Once a football-dominated school with modest basketball expectations, the Vols now demand national respect on the hardwood. They’re not a Cinderella. They’re a contender.
Still, this projection leaves a bitter taste.
“They earned more than this,” said Paul Finebaum. “And if the committee doesn’t wake up, Tennessee might just remind them the hard way in March.”
Projected Bracket (Per Basketball Focus Weekly):
- South Region
-
- Kansas
-
- Arizona
-
- Baylor
-
- Illinois
-
- Miami
- 6. Tennessee
-
- Saint Mary’s
-
- USC
-
- Oklahoma
-
- Providence
-
- Boise State
-
- Liberty
-
- Yale
-
- UC Irvine
-
- Vermont
-
- Norfolk State
-
Key Stats: Tennessee Volunteers (As of Final Regular Season Game)
- Record: 25–6 (14–4 SEC)
- NET Ranking: No. 9
- KenPom Rankings: 8th in defense, 24th in offense
- Quad 1 Wins: 7
- Top 25 Wins: 5
- Notable Wins: Kentucky (x2), Alabama, Gonzaga, Michigan State
- Notable Players: Zakai Zeigler, Jonas Aidoo, Josiah-Jordan James, Dalton Knecht
Undervalued, But Undeterred
The Tennessee Volunteers may not get the national media love they’ve earned, but they don’t need it. They’ve proven their value on the court, against elite competition, week after week. If being underestimated fuels them toward a deep March run, then perhaps this head-scratching projection will have served its purpose after all.
Just don’t be surprised when the Vols go dancing well past the second weekend.
