After a rollercoaster 2024-25 season that saw them reach the Final Four before falling short of the national championship, Duke basketball has been definitively named a top contender for the 2025-26 national title. This immediate projection of elite status comes despite significant roster turnover, a hallmark of modern college basketball, and hinges on a potent combination of returning talent, an elite incoming freshman class, and the continued strategic development under head coach Jon Scheyer.
The 2024-25 Duke squad, led by a strong freshman class including Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel, had an impressive run, finishing with a 35-4 record and winning the ACC Tournament. However, both Flagg and Knueppel, along with other key contributors like Tyrese Proctor and Khaman Maluach, have declared for the 2025 NBA Draft, leaving significant shoes to fill. Sion James also exhausted his eligibility. This exodus means the Blue Devils will be without their entire starting five from the successful 2024-25 campaign.
Despite this substantial roster turnover, the optimism surrounding Duke for the 2025-26 season is well-founded. Bookmakers like FanDuel already list Duke with the second-best odds to win the 2026 national championship, behind only Houston, and ahead of other perennial powerhouses like Purdue, Florida, Louisville, and Kentucky. This confidence stems from several key factors that position Duke as a formidable force.
At the core of Duke’s national championship aspirations is their sensational 2025 recruiting class, widely ranked as the No. 1 overall class in the nation by various recruiting services. This class is headlined by:
- Cameron Boozer (PF): The consensus five-star prospect and arguably the top player in the 2025 class. Cameron Boozer is projected to have an immediate and enormous impact. Scouts rave about his polished offensive game, elite rebounding, passing ability, and winning pedigree. He’s a dominant inside-out threat who can score in multiple ways and is expected to be a ready-made star, potentially averaging 16 points and 8 rebounds from day one. He’s often compared to his father, former NBA All-Star Carlos Boozer, but with a more refined all-around game at a younger age. His ability to impact the game in “1,759 different ways” is a testament to his versatility.
- Nikolas Khamenia (SF): A five-star small forward known for his excellent passing, strong three-point shot, and overall versatility. Khamenia’s high basketball IQ and ability to stretch the floor will be crucial in Scheyer’s offense. He’s also a McDonald’s All-American and was part of the 2025 USA Nike Hoop Summit team, showcasing his elite talent.
- Dame Sarr (SG): An intriguing international prospect who reclassified into the 2025 class. Sarr brings high-level athleticism, length (6-foot-7 with a 7-foot wingspan), and experience playing against professionals in Europe (FC Barcelona). He’s a high-ceiling wing who could develop into a dynamic two-way player.
- Cayden Boozer (PG): Cameron’s twin brother, a four-star point guard with excellent positional size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds) and strength. Cayden is a skilled passer and a true floor general, embodying the mold of point guards Scheyer prefers. While he might not start immediately, he offers a clear path to being a crucial piece in the backcourt.
- Sebastian Wilkins (PF): Another reclassification from the 2026 class, Wilkins is a four-star power forward who adds further athleticism and versatility to the frontcourt.
This incoming class provides an infusion of top-tier talent that can compete immediately at the highest level of college basketball.
While the starting five from 2024-25 are gone, Duke isn’t entirely devoid of experience. Several promising players from the previous season are set to take on significantly larger roles:
- Caleb Foster (G): A rising junior, Foster entered his sophomore season with high expectations but had an up-and-down year, eventually losing his starting spot to Sion James. However, he showed flashes of his talent, particularly towards the end of the season and in the NCAA Tournament. As the only projected upperclassman in the starting five, he’s poised for a breakout season as the lead guard and will be crucial for providing stability and leadership. Scheyer will look for him to regain his swagger and become a more consistent offensive threat.
- Isaiah Evans (G/F): A rising sophomore, Evans established himself as one of the best pure three-point shooters in the nation in his freshman year, connecting on 41.6% of his attempts. While largely a “3-and-D” player in 2024-25, he’s expected to have a much more elevated offensive role in 2025-26, expanding his game beyond just shooting.
- Patrick Ngongba II (C): A rising sophomore center, Ngongba dealt with injuries during his freshman campaign but showed flashes of his potential as a rim protector and transition big. He’s a true five-man (6-foot-11) who can run the floor and will be vital for Duke’s interior defense and rebounding. His offensive game will need development, but his defensive capabilities are already promising.
- Maliq Brown (F): A senior forward, Brown was a key defensive player in 2024-25, limited by a shoulder injury. He’s a high-motor defender known for his deflections, versatility, and ability to disrupt opponents. While not a high-volume scorer, his defensive impact is immense, and he could be one of the best defenders in college basketball in 2025-26.
- Darren Harris (G/F): A rising sophomore who saw limited minutes as a freshman but possesses significant outside shooting potential. He could see an increased role off the bench.
Under Jon Scheyer, Duke has continued to recruit at an elite level and maintain a strong offensive and defensive system. Scheyer’s offensive schemes are described as “layered and unique,” capable of maximizing the talent at his disposal. Despite the youth on the roster, Scheyer’s ability to develop players and integrate new talent quickly will be critical. The team’s commitment to positional size, as highlighted by their roster construction, also signals a strategic approach to competing in the increasingly physical landscape of college basketball.
While the outlook is overwhelmingly positive, there are legitimate questions and uncertainties. The primary concern is the lack of proven experience. With only one upperclassman likely in the starting five (Caleb Foster) and a significant reliance on freshmen and sophomores, the team’s ability to maintain consistency, especially early in the season, will be tested. College basketball in the era of the transfer portal means rosters are fluid, and developing chemistry quickly is paramount. The Blue Devils will face a “gauntlet” non-conference schedule designed to prepare them for ACC play, which will be an early test of their readiness.
Despite these challenges, the sheer volume of high-end talent, particularly in the frontcourt with players like Cameron Boozer, Ngongba, and Brown, gives Duke a formidable foundation. Their blend of elite shooting, versatile defense, and immense potential makes them a clear favorite to contend for the national championship in the 2025-26 season.
