The Golden State Warriors are navigating a complex offseason, and the future of their promising young forward, Jonathan Kuminga, is at the forefront of their decisions. It appears that the Warriors would be amenable to offering Jonathan Kuminga a three-year deal worth less than $30 million annually. This projected figure, however, might be lower than Kuminga’s own perceived market value, potentially setting the stage for a tense negotiation or even a departure from the Bay Area. While news is anticipated in the upcoming weeks, the situation remains unclear as several factors complicate Kuminga’s restricted free agency.
Kuminga, the No. 7 overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, has been a player of immense potential and tantalizing flashes throughout his four seasons with the Warriors. His athleticism, ability to attack the rim, and defensive versatility have always been evident. After a somewhat inconsistent first two seasons, Kuminga showed significant strides in the 2023-24 campaign, becoming a regular starter and posting career-high averages of 16.1 points and 4.8 rebounds per game on 52.9% shooting from the field.
However, the 2024-25 season, while featuring bright spots, was a “bittersweet” one for Kuminga. He averaged 15.3 points and 4.6 rebounds in 47 games, but his role was often inconsistent, particularly after the mid-season acquisition of Jimmy Butler. Kuminga also missed over a month due to an ankle injury, which hampered his rhythm. Despite these challenges, he notably stepped up when Stephen Curry was sidelined with a hamstring injury in the Western Conference Semifinals against the Minnesota Timberwolves, averaging 24.3 points over the final four games of the series. This late-season surge once again highlighted his immense talent and ability to contribute at a high level when given consistent minutes and a defined role.
The core issue facing the Warriors and Kuminga is a significant disparity in perceived value and the Warriors’ dire salary cap situation. Prior to the 2024-25 season, Kuminga reportedly rejected a five-year, $150 million contract extension from the Warriors. This offer, which would have averaged $30 million annually, was reportedly in line with extensions offered to other young talents like Jalen Johnson of the Atlanta Hawks and Jalen Suggs of the Orlando Magic. Kuminga, however, believed he could outperform that market value, opting to bet on himself in his contract year.
In retrospect, the Warriors’ decision not to go above $30 million annually appears prudent, as Kuminga’s value may have slightly decreased after an inconsistent 2024-25 campaign. ESPN’s Bobby Marks, a respected salary cap expert, recently projected Kuminga’s value to be closer to a three-year, $81 million deal with a player option in the final year, which would average $27 million annually. Marks noted that “projecting a new contract for Kuminga is like trying to master the Rubik’s Cube” due to his up-and-down season. This figure, starting at approximately $25 million in the first year, would give the Warriors more flexibility to remain below the second apron of the luxury tax.
The Warriors’ financial situation is arguably the most challenging in the league. For the 2025-26 season, they already have over $170 million committed to just Stephen Curry ($59.6M), Jimmy Butler ($54.1M), and Draymond Green ($25.8M), Moses Moody ($11.5M), and Buddy Hield ($9.2M) as key guaranteed contracts. This puts them well over the projected salary cap and deep into luxury tax territory, nearing the dreaded second apron. The new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) imposes severe penalties on teams that consistently operate above the second apron, including losing access to vital trade exceptions, the taxpayer mid-level exception, and even potentially freezing or dropping future first-round draft picks.
For a team already facing significant luxury tax penalties for years, committing another $25-30 million annually to Kuminga, on top of their existing commitments, would push them even further into punitive territory. This is why General Manager Mike Dunleavy Jr. and the front office are likely trying to keep Kuminga’s annual salary below the $30 million mark.
As a restricted free agent (RFA), Kuminga has the ability to negotiate and sign an offer sheet with any other NBA team. The Warriors then have 48 hours to match that offer sheet and retain Kuminga. If they choose not to match, Kuminga can sign with the other team. This RFA status gives the Warriors a significant advantage, as team owner Joe Lacob has stated it would “take a lot” for the Warriors not to match a Kuminga offer sheet.
However, the dynamics of restricted free agency, especially for a player with Kuminga’s talent and potential, are complex:
- Offer Sheet Threat: Kuminga’s agent, Aaron Turner of Verus Management Team, will undoubtedly explore the market to find the most lucrative offer sheet possible. Teams with cap space, such as the Brooklyn Nets or Detroit Pistons (though less likely to be attractive to Kuminga), could present substantial offers.
- Base Year Compensation (BYC): The new CBA’s Base Year Compensation rule makes sign-and-trades for Kuminga particularly complicated. Because Kuminga is due for a significant raise, his outgoing salary for trade purposes would be roughly half of his new salary, while the incoming salary Golden State could receive would be limited. This complicates any potential sign-and-trade scenarios, making it harder for the Warriors to acquire significant assets back if they can’t match an offer or agree to an extension.
- Kuminga’s Desire for Role and Development: Beyond money, Kuminga’s camp has expressed a desire for a more consistent role and clearer path to development. Head coach Steve Kerr has publicly stated that if Kuminga returns, the Warriors will prioritize playing him more alongside Curry, Green, and Butler early in the season. This commitment to a more defined role could be a crucial factor in Kuminga’s decision-making.
The NBA’s free agency tampering window opens on June 30, and the actual signing period begins on July 6. This period will be crucial for Kuminga’s future and the Warriors’ offseason plans. We can expect news on a few fronts:
- Qualifying Offer: The Warriors will first need to extend a qualifying offer to Kuminga (approximately $7.9 million) before June 29 to make him a restricted free agent. This is a formality that is almost certain to happen.
- Negotiations: Discussions between the Warriors and Kuminga’s agent will intensify. The Warriors will likely present their best offer, hovering around that sub-$30 million annual mark.
- Offer Sheets from Other Teams: Kuminga’s agent will explore the market. If Kuminga receives a substantial offer sheet from another team, the Warriors will then have to decide whether to match it, potentially pushing them further into luxury tax penalties, or let him walk, opting for financial flexibility or a sign-and-trade that might net limited assets.
- Sign-and-Trade Scenarios: While complicated by BYC, sign-and-trades are not impossible. The Warriors may explore these if Kuminga’s demands exceed what they are willing to pay outright. Teams in need of young, athletic talent, like the Milwaukee Bucks (who need young talent), or potentially even the Boston Celtics (if they decide to offload an expensive piece), could be involved in multi-team deals.
The Golden State Warriors are at a crossroads. They remain committed to competing for championships with their aging core, but the cost of doing so is becoming increasingly prohibitive under the new CBA. Jonathan Kuminga represents a vital bridge to their future, a young player with significant upside who could either grow into a key piece of their next contention window or become a valuable asset to acquire new talent. His contract situation is not merely about money; it’s a reflection of the Warriors’ delicate balance between retaining talent, managing their finances, and ensuring they have a team capable of reaching the ultimate goal. The decisions made in the coming weeks regarding Kuminga’s future will undoubtedly shape the Warriors’ trajectory for years to come.
