The celebratory streamers are on standby, the champagne corks are still in the bottle, and for good reason. While the Detroit Lions and their passionate fanbase are rightfully ecstatic about Aidan Hutchinson’s emergence as a bona fide defensive superstar, the notion of a premature “Hutch deal” – a massive contract extension – is a warning sign that General Manager Brad Holmes and his shrewd front office must heed. The confetti, for now, needs to be retained.
Aidan Hutchinson’s trajectory since being drafted second overall in 2022 has been nothing short of phenomenal. After a strong rookie campaign (9.5 sacks), he elevated his game significantly in 2023, earning a Pro Bowl nod with 11.5 sacks and becoming a true disruptive force. His 2024 season, though cut short by a leg injury in Week 6, saw him on an even more historic pace, tallying 7.5 sacks in just five games and being a frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year before the unfortunate setback. He’s a relentless motor, an intelligent player, and a high-character leader – everything a franchise wants in its cornerstone defender.
The Lions, under Brad Holmes, have shown a clear pattern of rewarding their homegrown talent. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Penei Sewell both received significant contract extensions ahead of their final rookie deal years, signaling the team’s commitment to building from within. Just recently, safety Kerby Joseph also inked a new deal. Given Hutchinson’s production and impact, it feels like an inevitability that he will be the next in line for a lucrative, long-term extension.
However, the warnings are real, and the reasons for the Lions to exercise caution and avoid “premature partying” on a new deal for Hutchinson are compelling:
1. The Lingering Cloud of Injury: This is the most immediate and significant concern. While Hutchinson has been “fully cleared” from the tibia and fibula fractures he sustained in Week 6 of the 2024 season, and has participated fully in offseason workouts, a serious lower-body injury like that carries inherent risk. The Lions need to see him play a full, healthy season at his pre-injury elite level. Rushing into a record-setting contract before observing his durability and sustained performance post-injury would be a major gamble. As ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio noted, the Lions “presumably want to be sure he’ll be back to where he was before assuming the financial risk that he possibly won’t be.”
2. The Skyrocketing Edge Rusher Market: The market for elite edge rushers is incredibly volatile and continues to reset annually. Myles Garrett’s $40 million AAV (signed in 2025) now leads the way, followed by Maxx Crosby ($35.5M), Nick Bosa ($34M), and others like Josh Allen and Brian Burns in the high $20Ms. T.J. Watt, whose contract average is currently $28M, is reportedly seeking an extension in the $35-40 million range. Micah Parsons is also due for a massive deal.
If the Lions were to sign Hutchinson today (June 2025), he would likely command a deal in the range of $30-35 million per year, potentially even higher, based on his pre-injury production. However, by waiting, the Lions gain critical information:
- Hutchinson’s sustained health and performance: If he plays all of 2025 at an elite level, they’ll happily pay. If he struggles or has another injury, their negotiating position strengthens.
- The evolving market: If other top edge rushers sign even larger deals, the price for Hutchinson will only go up. This is a risk, but it’s a risk the Lions seem willing to take for now, especially with the injury context.
3. The Lions’ Looming Salary Cap Crunch: This is perhaps the most critical long-term concern. The Lions have been incredibly aggressive in locking up their core players, which is a commendable strategy for building a sustained winner. However, this comes at a cost. Spotrac projects the Lions to be over the 2026 salary cap by over $54 million as of June 2025, which ranks them last in the NFL in terms of total cap space for that year.
Key existing large contracts hitting big in 2026 include:
- Jared Goff: $69.6 million (after his extension)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: $33.11 million
- Penei Sewell: $28 million
- Alim McNeill: $28.966 million (after his extension)
- Taylor Decker: $21.348 million
Hutchinson is currently on his rookie deal, and the Lions have already picked up his fifth-year option for 2026, which is a reasonable $19.782 million. This means they control him through 2026 without the pressure of an immediate extension hitting the books. If they were to sign him to a monster deal before 2026, it would exacerbate an already tight cap situation. They would need significant restructures, potentially cutting other valuable veterans, or pushing even more money into later years, creating larger cap problems down the line.
4. Strategic Leverage: The Lions hold significant leverage. They have Hutchinson under contract for two more seasons (2025 and 2026) due to the fifth-year option. Beyond that, they have the ability to use the franchise tag for at least two more years (2027 and 2028), albeit at increasing costs. While no team wants to go down that road with a beloved homegrown star, it provides a crucial safety net and allows the team to be patient. As Florio also pointed out, “The CBA gives the Lions the upper hand. They hold his rights for two more years, and then they can apply the franchise tag for at least another two.” Hutchinson’s desire to remain in Detroit is also leverage for the team, as it may make him more amenable to a slightly more team-friendly deal or a willingness to wait.
5. The “Good Problem to Have” Caveat: Yes, having a player like Aidan Hutchinson who demands a top-tier contract is a “good problem to have.” It means your draft pick hit, and you have a cornerstone. But even good problems require astute management. Committing too much cap too soon, especially after a significant injury, could hamstring the team’s ability to fill other crucial roster holes or retain depth, which is vital for long-term success. The defensive line, in particular, needs more consistent talent around Hutchinson, as seen by their 2024 sack numbers (low before Hutchinson’s injury) and the departure of Za’Darius Smith.
In conclusion, the adoration for Aidan Hutchinson in Detroit is well-deserved. He’s a phenomenal talent and embodies the “grit” and culture of the Lions. But the warning to “retain the confetti” on a premature contract extension is a prudent one. The confluence of his recent significant injury, the escalating nature of the edge rusher market, and the Lions’ impending salary cap challenges in 2026 dictates a patient approach. Brad Holmes’s track record suggests he understands these complexities. The Lions need to see Hutchinson return to his pre-injury dominance for a full season before committing generational wealth. While the “Hutch deal” is an inevitability, waiting ensures it’s done at the right time, for the right price, allowing the Lions to truly become a consistent contender rather than merely a flash in the pan.
