The decision facing Ethan Frey is one of the most exciting and agonizing choices a top collegiate baseball player can make: continue his amateur career at a storied program like LSU, or embark on the challenging path of professional baseball. For Frey, a highly touted prospect who has steadily improved his stock, the choice hinges entirely on his MLB Draft prospects.
Ethan Frey’s journey at LSU has been characterized by patience and a recent breakout.1 As a true freshman in 2023, he saw limited action (19 games, 2 starts, .263 AVG). His sophomore year in 2024 showed a slight increase in playing time (34 games, 9 starts, .228 AVG) but was impacted by a shoulder injury early in the season. However, it’s his performance in the 2025 season (his junior year) that has truly elevated his professional standing.
According to recent reports, D1Baseball indicates that in 2025, Frey is batting an impressive .331 with 13 home runs, 50 RBIs, and 43 runs scored through 61 games and 181 at-bats. This significantly improved production, especially the power numbers, is precisely what MLB scouts look for in a professional bat. He has settled into an everyday designated hitter role for much of the conference play and has shown significant growth in his plate discipline, particularly with two strikes.2 LSU Coach Jay Johnson has lauded Frey’s maturity and ability to handle various roles, injuries, and successes, stating that success was always going to be there for him.3
Prior to his junior season, scouting reports already highlighted Frey’s impressive physical tools. Standing at 6’5″ and weighing around 220 lbs, he possesses a powerful right-handed bat with significant raw power that projects well for professional baseball. He was initially recruited as a catcher and first baseman, but has transitioned to playing mostly outfield and designated hitter at LSU, showcasing his positional versatility. This adaptability, along with his strong arm (a remnant of his catching days and his background as a high school quarterback), adds to his appeal.
1. MLB Draft Position and Signing Bonus: This is, without a doubt, the most significant factor.
* Current Projections: MLB.com and Just Baseball both have Ethan Frey listed as an outfielder in their 2025 MLB Draft prospect rankings.4 While not universally in the top 100, he appears in the broader top 200 prospects (e.g., #180 on MLB.com’s NCAA Regionals prospects list, #124 on MiLB.com’s top prospects list).5 Some reports even indicate he is “expected to be selected in the 2025 MLB Draft.”
* The Offer: If Frey receives an offer from an MLB team in the first three to five rounds, with a substantial signing bonus that reflects his potential and justifies foregoing his senior year at LSU, he will almost certainly turn professional. A significant bonus provides financial security and kickstarts his professional journey. Teams are typically willing to pay above slot value for players they believe have high ceilings. His impressive 2025 season drastically improves the likelihood of a strong offer.
* The Risk of Returning: If his draft stock falls to the later rounds, the signing bonus might not be as enticing. In this scenario, returning to LSU for his senior year (or even potentially a fifth year due to the COVID-19 waiver) would be a strong consideration. Another year of high-level competition in the SEC, continued development under Coach Johnson, and a chance to further refine his skills could significantly improve his draft stock for the 2026 or 2027 draft. However, returning also carries the risk of injury or a slump that could hurt his stock.
2. Development at LSU:
* Pros of Returning: LSU offers arguably the best environment for collegiate baseball development. Coach Jay Johnson’s staff has a proven track record of developing MLB talent. Another year of daily practice, weight training, and elite competition in the SEC could help Frey further refine his plate approach, improve his defense (wherever he plays), and demonstrate consistent power. The chance to compete for another national championship, building on the success of the 2025 team, is also a powerful incentive. Being a key leader on a prominent college team can also add to a player’s resume.
* Cons of Returning: As with any college returnee, there’s always the risk of injury, which could significantly impact future draft stock. There’s also the question of whether he’s maxed out his development curve at the collegiate level and if the best next step for his growth is the grind of minor league baseball.
3. Positional Versatility and Defensive Improvement:
* Frey’s ability to play multiple positions (catcher, first base, outfield) is a valuable asset. While his bat is his primary tool, continued defensive refinement, particularly if he focuses on one or two positions, would make him even more attractive to MLB organizations. His 2025 stats show he’s been mostly DH, so demonstrating more consistent defensive prowess could be key. MLB teams value players who can be plug-and-play at various spots.
4. LSU’s Roster Outlook:
* While Frey has established himself as a key offensive piece for LSU, the team’s overall roster depth, particularly at positions he might play (outfield/DH), could factor into his decision. If LSU is projected to have another stacked lineup with other high-profile recruits or returning veterans, it might influence his perceived role, though his 2025 performance suggests he’s earned a starting spot.
5. Personal Desire and “Business Opportunity”:
* Frey himself has stated in past interviews that he views the MLB Draft as a “business opportunity” and wants to be in the “best spot to do what I want to do with this opportunity.” This indicates a pragmatic approach. While his love for LSU is evident, the ultimate goal for most top prospects is professional baseball. The lure of starting that journey, even with the long road ahead in the minors, is incredibly strong.
Given Ethan Frey’s stellar 2025 performance, which has clearly boosted his draft stock, it is highly probable that he will choose to pursue a career in the professional ranks if he receives a signing bonus commensurate with his talent and recent success.
His impressive numbers (13 HR, .331 AVG) combined with his physical tools (power, size, versatility) make him a very attractive bat for MLB teams, particularly those looking for a power-hitting outfielder or first baseman. If he’s projected in the top 3-5 rounds of the 2025 MLB Draft, the financial incentive and the opportunity to begin his professional development would be too significant to pass up.
While his time at LSU has been transformative, culminating in a breakout junior year, the primary objective for most elite college baseball players is to reach the major leagues. The 2025 MLB Draft represents his first true opportunity to achieve that dream on a substantial scale. Unless an unexpected event (like a significant injury before the draft) drastically alters his projection, expect to see Ethan Frey’s name called early enough in the draft that he’ll be trading his LSU purple and gold for the uniform of an MLB organization’s minor league affiliate. He has put himself in an excellent position to do so.
