As Louisville continues to surge, Mark Stoops and the Kentucky Wildcats are quickly losing momentum.
As the calendar pushes deeper into the summer and the college football world prepares for another high-stakes season, the energy coming out of Louisville is growing louder by the day. Meanwhile, just an hour and a half east down I-64, things in Lexington feel eerily quiet. While Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops has spent the past decade building the Wildcats into a competitive SEC program with bowl game consistency, the tide may be shifting. The signs are clear: Louisville is heating up, and Kentucky appears to be fading fast.
For most of the 2010s and early 2020s, Mark Stoops could do no wrong in the eyes of Big Blue Nation. He inherited a program at the bottom of the SEC and methodically turned it into one that earned national respect. He brought Kentucky double-digit wins, multiple bowl victories, and perhaps most importantly, he instilled a toughness and identity the program sorely lacked. Recruiting improved steadily. NFL Draft picks became more frequent. For a while, Kentucky seemed poised to become a permanent top-half SEC contender.
But college football is a fluid game. Momentum is fragile, and perception changes quickly. While Stoops and Kentucky have plateaued slightly, the Cardinals across the state are trending upward at a rapid pace under head coach Jeff Brohm. A Louisville native and former quarterback, Brohm returned home with a mission to not only revive Louisville football but elevate it to national contention. One year in, the results are undeniable. A 10-win season. An appearance in the ACC Championship Game. Renewed recruiting momentum. Excitement from the fan base that hadn’t been seen in years.
That excitement matters, especially in a state like Kentucky where basketball dominates headlines. Louisville’s football program has become a rallying point once again, and it’s helped them land notable commitments in recruiting. They’ve built a strong presence in key talent-rich regions, including Florida and Georgia, while simultaneously gaining traction inside the state of Kentucky. That last part may be the most concerning for Stoops. In recent years, Kentucky controlled in-state recruiting almost entirely. But now, Louisville is starting to win those battles too. The balance is shifting.
To be clear, Stoops still has a respectable program. Kentucky is not falling off a cliff. The Wildcats still have SEC resources, still have a passionate fan base, and still win more often than they lose. But the upward trajectory that once defined the Stoops era seems to have leveled off. After back-to-back seven-win seasons and continued struggles against the SEC’s elite, questions are emerging. Is this the ceiling for Kentucky? Can Stoops reinvigorate his approach and take things to the next level, or has the momentum permanently swung away from Lexington?
The 2024 season is shaping up to be pivotal for Stoops. His track record has bought him goodwill, but that goodwill only goes so far in a results-driven business. Another middling season, especially if it includes a lopsided loss to Louisville again, would add fuel to growing concerns. Last season’s rivalry game at the end of November saw Louisville come into Kroger Field and deliver a convincing performance, flipping a script that Kentucky had dominated in recent years. For the better part of a decade, Kentucky used the Governor’s Cup to assert regional superiority. But in 2023, that narrative cracked. Louisville’s physicality, speed, and composure stood out. Kentucky, on the other hand, looked out of sorts.
That game wasn’t just a win on the scoreboard—it was symbolic of a larger shift in the state’s football landscape. Louisville is rising with purpose, while Kentucky is trying to rediscover its edge. And that’s not lost on recruits, boosters, or fans. Even in a state known more for hoops than helmets, football matters. The fight for supremacy is heating up, and right now, Brohm’s squad is leading the charge.
Part of the concern in Lexington stems from recent recruiting setbacks. While Kentucky is still bringing in talent, they’ve missed on a few high-profile prospects they were once favored to land. Some have flipped to other SEC programs. Others have chosen to stay in-state—just not in Lexington. The emergence of Louisville as a serious recruiting competitor adds another layer of pressure on Stoops and his staff. For years, the message was clear: if you’re from Kentucky and want to play big-time football, UK is the place. That message no longer resonates with the same certainty.
Beyond recruiting, there’s the issue of offensive identity. Kentucky has undergone multiple coordinator changes over the past few seasons, with varying degrees of success. The return of Liam Coen briefly sparked hope that the Wildcats could find balance and explosiveness. But inconsistency plagued the offense in 2023, and fans are growing impatient with the lack of rhythm. Quarterback play, once a strong point under Will Levis, has also struggled to find stability.
By contrast, Louisville’s offense has found rhythm quickly under Brohm, who has long been regarded as one of college football’s sharpest offensive minds. His system fits the modern game perfectly—fast, creative, and quarterback-friendly. The results are already paying off, with transfers and recruits flocking to the program in hopes of producing gaudy numbers and future NFL tape. In today’s transfer portal era, a coach’s system and style matter more than ever, and Brohm’s brand of football is undeniably attractive.
Meanwhile, Kentucky continues to lean on its physical brand of defense and ball control, a style that served them well in the past but may feel outdated against today’s high-scoring offenses. Stoops has never been one to chase flash, and his emphasis on toughness and development is commendable. But the game is changing rapidly. NIL, the transfer portal, and offensive innovation are reshaping the landscape. Programs that adapt quickly gain an advantage. Programs that resist evolution risk being left behind.
It’s worth remembering that Kentucky’s rise under Stoops came in part because of a lack of consistent pressure from Louisville. When the Cardinals were cycling through coaches and rebuilding, Stoops had room to consolidate control within the state. That’s no longer the case. Brohm is stable, smart, and supported. Louisville has found its leader, and the program’s direction is clear. The competition for relevance in Kentucky is real again—and it’s fierce.
What makes this current shift even more intriguing is that both programs are coming into a new era with heightened stakes. The expanded College Football Playoff, conference realignment, and evolving player movement rules mean there’s more opportunity and more volatility. The margin for error is razor thin. For Kentucky, this means that simply hovering around .500 in the SEC is no longer enough to sustain momentum. The fan base has seen what’s possible and now demands more.
For Stoops, the challenge is clear: he must evolve without abandoning the foundation he built. That foundation includes a physical, disciplined defense and a blue-collar approach to development. But it also requires new life on offense, fresh ideas in recruiting, and a reassertion of in-state dominance. The longer Kentucky allows Louisville to control the narrative, the harder it will be to flip it back. Momentum matters in college football—and right now, it’s shifting red, not blue.
It’s not panic time in Lexington yet. Stoops has earned the right to retool, refocus, and respond. But the pressure is mounting. Louisville is no longer a rebuilding program—they’re a threat. Kentucky can’t afford to dismiss that. The Governor’s Cup rivalry has always meant something, but it might mean more now than ever before. It’s not just about bragging rights anymore. It’s about momentum, recruiting power, and statewide football relevance.
This upcoming season could go a long way in determining the direction of both programs. If Kentucky can recapture its swagger and reestablish its brand, it can remain a force in the SEC and maintain control of its backyard. But if the slide continues, and Louisville keeps climbing, the narrative will be hard to reverse. The noise is getting louder in Louisville—and unless something changes quickly in Lexington, that noise could drown out the echoes of past Kentucky success.
