Josh Pate Delivers Concerning Forecast for Kalen DeBoer’s First Season at Alabama.

Kalen DeBoer stepped into one of the most daunting roles in all of college football when he took over as head coach at Alabama, replacing the legendary Nick Saban. With Saban’s departure came a seismic shift in the sport, and with DeBoer now tasked with maintaining the Crimson Tide’s dominance, every move he makes is under scrutiny. That pressure only intensified when college football analyst Josh Pate recently shared a prediction that has many Alabama fans on edge. Pate’s forecast wasn’t just a casual observation—it was a sobering assessment of the obstacles DeBoer faces in year one, and it painted a picture of potential turbulence ahead.

Pate, known for his popular “Late Kick” show and measured insights into the sport, didn’t mince words. He acknowledged DeBoer’s credentials—his stellar offensive mind, the turnaround at Washington, the winning culture he’s created everywhere he’s been. But in the same breath, he issued a cautionary warning that the upcoming season may not meet the lofty expectations set by a fanbase accustomed to excellence. It wasn’t about doubting DeBoer’s ability. Instead, it was about timing, transition, and the unforgiving nature of the SEC, particularly in a year when Alabama is trying to stabilize after the departure of a coaching titan.

The biggest concern Pate raised revolves around cohesion. Alabama, under Saban, operated like a machine. Every detail, from practice routines to recruiting pipelines, was perfected over time. DeBoer is inheriting the framework of that machine, but he’s still required to recalibrate it to his vision. That doesn’t happen overnight. Coordinators, assistants, and players are still learning new schemes. Offensive philosophies have shifted. Defensive strategies are being reshaped. Even though Alabama returns a lot of talent, talent alone doesn’t win titles. Continuity and culture do. And while DeBoer is working hard to instill his own culture, there’s no guarantee it clicks in year one.

Pate also highlighted the brutal nature of Alabama’s 2025 schedule. The SEC doesn’t allow time to ease into a new role, and Alabama’s slate is filled with landmines. Road trips to hostile environments, high-powered offenses, and physical defenses await. There’s little room for error. One misstep could snowball. Pate’s concern isn’t that Alabama will collapse—far from it. But he raised the possibility that a two-loss regular season might be the realistic floor. And for a program used to contending for national titles every year, that would feel like a letdown, even if it’s a natural step in a coaching transition.

One of the subtler points Pate made involved the fanbase. Alabama fans aren’t just loyal; they’re expectant. They’ve been spoiled by success. Saban brought national championships, NFL draft picks, Heisman winners, and dominance over rivals. That standard has become the norm. So what happens if DeBoer goes 10-2? What if Alabama loses the Iron Bowl or falls short in the SEC Championship Game? Pate hinted at the emotional volatility of a fanbase that might not be prepared to accept growing pains. It’s a fair warning. Even if DeBoer is the right long-term fit, the patience required in year one may not be universally extended.

Another area of concern surrounds the quarterback position. Jalen Milroe had a strong finish to the 2024 season and returns with momentum, but he now has to adapt to a new offensive system. DeBoer, along with his offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan, is bringing a different approach than what Milroe had under Tommy Rees. There’s a learning curve involved, and it remains to be seen how seamlessly Milroe can transition into a system that might emphasize timing, progressions, and different reads. Pate noted that quarterback play is often the biggest swing factor in year-one coaching transitions. If Milroe thrives, Alabama can still be a playoff team. But if he struggles, even briefly, the Tide could drop a game or two they would’ve previously won.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Tide remain loaded with athletes, but they are also dealing with transition. New schemes, new terminology, and new leadership are in play. Defensive coordinator Kane Wommack brings intensity and fresh ideas, but integrating those concepts takes time. Pate warned that Alabama might not look like its usual defensive self in September and October. And with early games potentially against explosive offenses, any slip-ups could be costly. Opponents are no longer intimidated by the Alabama name alone—they see an opportunity to pounce during a perceived down year.

It’s also important to consider the recruiting ripple effects. While Alabama’s 2025 recruiting class remains strong on paper, rival programs are attempting to exploit the uncertainty. Kirby Smart at Georgia, Steve Sarkisian at Texas, and Brian Kelly at LSU are all trying to chip away at Alabama’s dominance in the Southeast. Pate touched on the long-term implications if DeBoer doesn’t post a strong debut season. Momentum in recruiting is a delicate thing. A few disappointing results in year one could embolden competitors and weaken Alabama’s grip on elite talent, even if only slightly.

Pate made it clear that he still believes in DeBoer as a coach. He praised his adaptability, leadership, and football IQ. He pointed out that DeBoer has been a winner at every stop—from NAIA to Fresno State to Washington. But coaching at Alabama isn’t just about winning—it’s about winning everything. That’s a different pressure, one that very few men are equipped to handle. DeBoer might be one of them. Still, Pate’s prediction was a reminder that even the best coaches face hurdles in the first year at a powerhouse program. History has shown that many greats stumble before they soar.

Fans of the program should take Pate’s comments as a challenge rather than a condemnation. This isn’t doom and gloom. It’s a realistic forecast that accounts for the challenges inherent in any major transition. It’s also a call for patience and perspective. Even if Alabama doesn’t return to the College Football Playoff in 2025, that doesn’t mean the DeBoer era is off to a bad start. Sometimes progress is made in ways that don’t immediately reflect in the win-loss record.

Pate’s message ultimately offered a nuanced view. He wasn’t suggesting Alabama will falter or fall apart. He wasn’t claiming that DeBoer was the wrong hire. What he did say was that the road ahead is bumpy and that fans and analysts alike should brace for a season that may look different from what Alabama has produced in the past. That’s not a slight against DeBoer—it’s a recognition of the enormous shoes he’s filling and the volatile environment that comes with inheriting a football dynasty.

If there’s any silver lining to this prediction, it’s that DeBoer has always thrived in moments of doubt. At Washington, he took a team that had gone 4-8 and turned them into a national contender in one season. He revitalized a Fresno State program and turned them into Mountain West powers. Every time he’s faced skepticism, he’s responded with results. The difference now is that those challenges are magnified tenfold. But DeBoer isn’t someone who shies away from pressure. In fact, he embraces it.

For Alabama fans, Pate’s comments serve as both a warning and a test. The standard remains the same, but the path to achieving it might look different. There may be growing pains. There may be tough losses. But the foundation for future dominance can still be laid, even if the first chapter isn’t spotless. As DeBoer begins this next chapter, all eyes will be on him. The expectations are sky-high, and the margin for error is razor thin. But if anyone is capable of turning concern into confidence, it’s Kalen DeBoer.

Only time will tell if Josh Pate’s prediction proves accurate. But one thing is certain—DeBoer’s journey at Alabama will be one of the most scrutinized stories in college football. Whether the Tide rolls in 2025 or faces a rare stumble, the legacy of Kalen DeBoer is just beginning to take shape.