ESPN’s recent projection that Tennessee’s 2025 offense could mark the lowest point of the Josh Heupel era struck a nerve with Vols fans and college football observers alike. For a program that has built its identity around an uptempo, high-powered offense ever since Heupel arrived in Knoxville, the notion that this coming season might bring a major regression raises serious questions about roster stability, offensive scheme adaptability, and overall program trajectory. Though Tennessee’s defense is expected to be one of the best under Heupel, the offense—long the cornerstone of the Vols’ resurgence—is what now causes the greatest concern.
The core of the concern begins at quarterback. The most notable change is the absence of Nico Iamaleava, who transferred after what was expected to be his breakout season. Iamaleava, while young and still developing, had shown flashes of elite play and was widely viewed as the next great Tennessee signal caller. His sudden departure left a major void and threw the quarterback room into disarray. In response, Tennessee brought in Joey Aguilar, a graduate transfer who had impressive production at Appalachian State but lacks experience at the SEC level. While Aguilar has a strong arm and the ability to operate at tempo, adapting to Heupel’s offense in the SEC is a steep learning curve, and there’s no guarantee he’ll meet expectations quickly. Behind him, Tennessee is left with redshirt freshman Jake Merklinger and true freshman George MacIntyre—two players with zero meaningful in-game experience. The lack of a proven starter creates volatility at the most critical position on the field, something Heupel’s previous teams have been able to avoid.
While the quarterback situation is unsettled, it’s far from the only red flag. Tennessee’s offensive line, which struggled at times even in better years, enters 2025 having lost multiple veteran starters. Though there are a few returning pieces, including some transfers and young linemen with potential, the unit lacks cohesion and proven SEC performance. Offensive line continuity is often overlooked by casual fans, but it’s vital in an offense that relies on tempo. A breakdown in protection not only slows down the pace but forces hurried throws, disrupts timing, and leads to three-and-outs that leave the defense on the field longer. The 2025 group, as projected, lacks both the depth and the consistency to dominate in the trenches, and that has a cascading effect on the offense as a whole.
Adding to the concern is the wide receiver room, which has been one of the program’s strengths in recent years. Tennessee has produced NFL-caliber receivers under Heupel, with players like Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman thriving in the system. But the 2025 roster is notably thin at the position. Squirrel White, the most explosive returning receiver, is gone. Chris Brazzell II shows promise but is largely untested at the SEC level. The rest of the group is composed of freshmen or rotational players who have yet to prove they can consistently create separation against top-tier competition. Explosive plays have been the lifeblood of Heupel’s offense. If the wide receivers aren’t capable of stretching the field or making defenders miss in space, the offense will have a hard time sustaining drives or generating the big plays that have defined this system.
The running back room, while not as thin as other areas, still faces questions. Tennessee lost Dylan Sampson, their most consistent and dynamic back. While several younger players return, none have taken on a lead role in the past. Peyton Lewis, DeSean Bishop, and Duke transfer Star Thomas are all capable, but none are proven commodities. With a shaky offensive line and uncertain quarterback situation, Tennessee may be forced to lean more heavily on the run game than in previous seasons. That would require these backs not only to produce yardage but also to help stabilize the offense in key situations. The challenge is whether this group can shoulder that load without a star in the backfield.
One of the overlooked reasons for the projected decline is the departure of offensive coordinator Alex Golesh after the 2022 season. While Heupel calls the plays and is known for his offensive acumen, Golesh was instrumental in implementing the scheme and working directly with quarterbacks and receivers. Since his exit, Tennessee’s offense has lacked the sharpness and precision that once made it the most dangerous in the country. The drop-off in scoring has been clear. In the two years since Golesh left, Tennessee’s points per game average has dipped by nearly ten points. That regression has been masked at times by favorable matchups or defensive performances, but against elite opponents, the offense has struggled to impose its will. Bringing in Seth Littrell as an analyst might eventually bring new energy to the offensive staff, but as of now, he doesn’t have an active play-calling role. Without clear leadership and creative spark in the coaching room, the offense has appeared stagnant and too reliant on tempo rather than execution.
Tempo has always been Tennessee’s signature under Heupel. At their best, they wear defenses down, snap the ball with minimal time between plays, and create mismatches before the defense can adjust. But in recent seasons, defenses have caught on. More SEC coordinators are using hybrid coverages, switching between zone and man on the fly, and disguising blitzes in ways that confuse quarterbacks into rushing decisions. Without the explosive receivers to capitalize on deep shots or the experienced quarterback to read the field, Tennessee’s tempo becomes less effective—and even harmful. Quick three-and-outs put pressure on the defense and shorten possession time. Last season, Tennessee’s time of possession ranked near the bottom nationally, despite having a top-20 scoring defense. The tempo, once an advantage, has turned into a liability when the execution isn’t perfect.
In key offensive metrics, the decline is evident. In 2022, Tennessee ranked near the top nationally in red-zone efficiency, third-down conversions, and explosive plays over 30 yards. By 2024, they had plummeted in all three categories. Red-zone touchdown percentage fell to barely over 50%, among the worst in the SEC. Third-down conversions became erratic, and explosive plays became rare. The offense that once forced defenses to play on their heels now struggles to finish drives or flip field position. Without quick-strike capability or consistent drive sustainment, Tennessee’s scoring efficiency has dropped, which is why ESPN’s model now projects them to be in the bottom half of the SEC in offensive SP+ for 2025.
The defensive side of the ball, ironically, is where optimism resides. Tennessee is returning one of its most talented defensive units in recent memory, filled with veteran linebackers, an improving secondary, and a defensive line that can get after the quarterback. That defense may end up being the saving grace of the 2025 team, but it also adds pressure on the offense not to waste possessions or commit costly turnovers. A great defense can mask offensive deficiencies to an extent, but in the SEC, especially with matchups against programs like Georgia, Alabama, and Texas on the schedule, you need both sides of the ball performing to compete for championships.
The broader issue isn’t just talent, but trajectory. Each year since 2022, Tennessee’s offense has taken a step backward. First, it was the loss of a coordinator. Then came quarterback inconsistency. Now, the depth and explosiveness at receiver are in question, and the offensive line looks increasingly patchwork. While Heupel deserves credit for revitalizing Tennessee and making them relevant again, he now faces his biggest test yet. Can he adapt his system to fit different personnel? Can he develop quarterbacks on the fly? Can he fix red-zone woes and bring creativity back into play design?
ESPN’s warning isn’t just a criticism of Tennessee’s offense—it’s a challenge. If the Vols want to remain contenders in a crowded and competitive SEC, they can’t afford for their identity to erode. Heupel’s entire brand is built on offensive innovation and execution. If 2025 truly marks the low point of his tenure offensively, it could raise serious questions about whether the system has hit its ceiling.
Still, there is hope. Football is unpredictable. Perhaps Joey Aguilar exceeds expectations. Maybe a young receiver breaks out and gives Tennessee the big-play threat they’re lacking. It’s possible the offensive line gels quicker than expected and gives the offense enough structure to return to form. But those are maybes, not certainties. And ESPN’s projection is based on data, trendlines, and the hard truth of roster turnover.
For now, Tennessee fans and college football followers alike will be watching closely. The 2025 season is a make-or-break moment—not because the program is collapsing, but because its core identity is at stake. If the offense falters again, and especially if it ends up being the worst of the Heupel era, it may force a full reevaluation of scheme, staff, and direction. The bar has been raised under Heupel, but so have the expectations. And in the SEC, there’s no room for sustained offensive decline.
