When the Carolina Panthers selected Tetairoa McMillan with the eighth overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, it wasn’t a surprise that analysts immediately keyed in on his potential to become Bryce Young’s primary offensive threat. McMillan’s size—standing at roughly 6‑foot‑4 and weighing around 219 pounds—paired with his ball skills and athleticism, gave him the physical profile of a lockdown X‑receiver. But beyond physical traits, the context of the Panthers’ wide receiver room compounded his upside. As of the 2024 season, no Panther had topped even 84 targets all year, and with Thielen aging and Legette and Coker still unproven, McMillan stands poised to inherit the alpha role in this offense
Fantasy outlets and analysts have largely mirrored that sentiment. A fantasy football preview projected McMillan to accumulate around 1,123 receiving yards on 83 receptions from roughly 132 targets, with a projected seven touchdowns—though the author thought the touchdown total could easily be higher. Similarly, DraftKings’ distribution projections suggest McMillan could see a mid-to-high‑20s target share, relegating Legette’s 17 % from the previous year to the background and placing McMillan squarely in the top target spot
Some analysts think that share could be even higher—around 23–25 %—which would make him the team’s primary pass-catching weapon, even if there are other mouths to feed. Latham of Last Word on Sports projects roughly 70 receptions, 900 yards, and five touchdowns for McMillan in his rookie season, which would likely slot him as a mid‑to‑low‑end WR2 in fantasy terms Sports).
If McMillan performs well early on—and Bryce Young continues to progress—the best-case scenario emerging from some projections sees him nearing 1,000 yards, with Young fully embracing McMillan as his go-to target. One projection has McMillan finishing with 72 catches for 901 yards and six touchdowns in that “massive” season scenario . Other analysts draw comparisons between McMillan’s usage in college—where he commanded over 30 % of his team’s targets—and his likelihood of supplanting Legette’s prior 17 % mark, reinforcing that he’s expected to dominate the receiving hierarchy pic.twitter-forward
Beyond volume predictions, McMillan’s skill set plays to both efficiency and exploitation of specific defensive weaknesses. At Arizona, he averaged over 1,300 receiving yards for two consecutive seasons and demonstrated high-level yards-per-route-run metrics (2.79 in 2023, 2.87 in 2024), excellent contested catch ability, and a strong deep-threat profile. PFF and FantasyPros note that receivers of similar stature and target share—6’3″ or taller, around 21 % target share—have averaged over 10.5 PPR points per game and frequently found the end zone (PFSN). That bodes well for McMillan’s red-zone integration, especially given that Carolina’s red-zone passing rate was already among the league’s highest (61.5 %) (PFF).
So, why is heavy target share specifically expected against the Jaguars?
The Week 1 opponent, Jacksonville, is undergoing its own defensive uncertainties. FantasyPros points out that the Jaguars allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers last season, and the fourth-highest PPR points per target to those same players (FantasyPros). Their perimeter coverage remains shaky in 2025—Tyson Campbell and Jarrian Jones will likely shadow McMillan, but both allowed high completion percentages and elevated passer ratings when targeted in 2024
Despite the buzz around rookie Travis Hunter, Jacksonville’s athletic, two-way playmaker, McMillan has a size advantage when lined up opposite him—three inches and over 25 pounds heavier—giving him the physical edge on contested throws (SI). Even though ESPN’s Seth Walder predicts that Hunter may “shut down” McMillan on the few occasions they collide one-on-one, he also notes that such matchups will likely be limited. Hunter is expected to play primarily as a slot cornerback, while McMillan will line up on the outside as the X‑receiver (SI).
This specific defensive context invites Carolina to lean on their rookie weapon early and often. Analysts expect McMillan to see heavy volume right from the jump—in Week 1 and potentially beyond—and to be the primary beneficiary in the Panthers’ evolving offense. Fantasy and team-interest coalesce here: his skillset, role, and opponent matchup all point toward McMillan hauling in a hefty share of Bryce Young’s passes as he establishes himself in the NFL.
Every projection carries inherent risk—rookie wideouts have historically been volatile—but the Panthers’ thin receiver corps, McMillan’s physical and technical profile, and favorable matchup combine to create a perfect storm for heavy target usage against the Jaguars.
Let me know if you’d like me to trim or expand any piece, or focus more on fantasy outlook vs. Panthers’ offense strategy—or anything else of interest!
