Since 2021, the Baltimore Ravens have been a team that fans and analysts alike expected to be a consistent contender in the NFL playoffs. With a strong roster, a dynamic quarterback in Lamar Jackson, and a historically solid defense, many believed the Ravens would be one of the teams to watch year after year. However, the reality has been somewhat more complicated and frustrating for their fan base. One particularly striking and somewhat disheartening statistic highlights this inconsistency: since 2021, the Ravens have lost eight games in which they had at least a 90% win probability. This is the highest number of such losses in the NFL during that period, which paints a picture of a team that struggles to close out games when they are heavily favored to win.
This statistic might sound surprising to those who consider the Ravens as a perennial powerhouse. Win probability is an analytical measure that estimates the likelihood a team will win at any point in the game, based on the score, time remaining, field position, down and distance, and other situational factors. A 90% or higher win probability generally means the team is in a commanding position, so losing eight games under these conditions is significant. It points to a pattern of late-game lapses, breakdowns in execution, or even bad luck that has cost the Ravens valuable wins.
When a team has that many losses despite commanding leads, it raises questions about mental toughness, coaching decisions, adjustments made during games, and sometimes just sheer misfortune. These losses are often gut punches, where the team and fans think the game is effectively won only to see the outcome slip away in the final moments. For a franchise with championship aspirations, this is a troubling trend because close games and comebacks are part of what define championship teams — you expect to win those when you have the lead.
The toll of these losses is felt not only in the standings but also in the perception of the team’s ability to perform under pressure. NFL teams are measured by their ability to close out games, especially in critical moments against tough competition. The Ravens losing eight such games means they have let a lot of potential victories slip through their fingers, which has a ripple effect on playoff positioning and confidence.
This trend has not gone unnoticed by fans, commentators, and betting markets. On the popular betting platform Kalshi, where fans and investors can trade contracts based on NFL outcomes, the Ravens’ chances of winning the Super Bowl have recently been overtaken by the Buffalo Bills. This shift is notable because it reflects a broader perception that the Bills are now the team with better odds, at least from a market standpoint, to take the ultimate prize in the NFL.
Buffalo has been steadily improving over the last several seasons, building around a strong quarterback in Josh Allen, a solid coaching staff, and a team that has demonstrated an ability to win critical games. Their consistency and ability to execute in high-pressure situations contrast with the Ravens’ struggles in games they should have won. As a result, betting markets have adjusted, giving the Bills a higher probability of winning the Super Bowl and nudging the Ravens down a notch.
For Ravens fans, this shift can be frustrating. It reflects the harsh realities of the NFL where even teams with talent and history can find themselves overshadowed if they fail to close out games. The Ravens are still a competitive and talented team, but these losses in high-probability situations have impacted their reputation and standing in the eyes of analysts and bettors alike.
To understand why the Ravens have lost these eight games despite being heavily favored, it’s important to look at various factors. Injuries, for instance, have played a role in some seasons, impacting the continuity of the team and forcing changes in key positions. Coaching decisions, especially regarding clock management, playcalling, and defensive adjustments, have also been scrutinized. The NFL is a league of inches and seconds, and small errors or miscalculations can lead to catastrophic outcomes in games.
Lamar Jackson, while an electrifying talent capable of game-changing plays, has faced criticism for inconsistency in key moments. While his ability to run and extend plays is unmatched, the Ravens sometimes struggle when forced to rely on the passing game under pressure. Opponents have found ways to contain Jackson’s strengths or capitalize on mistakes in crucial moments, leading to those surprising losses.
Furthermore, the Ravens’ defense, which historically has been their backbone, has occasionally faltered late in games, allowing opposing teams to mount comebacks. Football is the ultimate team sport, and success hinges on both sides of the ball performing at a high level. When the defense fails to hold leads, the team’s entire momentum can collapse quickly.
In comparison, the Buffalo Bills have demonstrated a greater ability to maintain leads and win close games. Their defense, combined with a dynamic offense led by Josh Allen, has proven resilient. They have learned to manage games better in the second half, making necessary adjustments to thwart comebacks and close out tight contests.
The shift in Super Bowl odds between the Ravens and Bills on platforms like Kalshi is also influenced by the public’s perception and betting patterns. As bettors observe the Ravens’ late-game struggles and the Bills’ improving track record, the market naturally adjusts to reflect those realities. Betting odds are fluid and incorporate a wide range of information, from player health and team performance to coaching and momentum trends.
This dynamic highlights how NFL success is not just about talent on paper but about execution and mental strength when it matters most. The best teams find ways to win when the pressure is highest, and those late-game moments often define legacies.
For the Ravens, the key to reversing this trend lies in learning from these losses. They must focus on improving late-game execution, whether through more disciplined playcalling, better clock management, or enhanced mental preparation for critical situations. Developing more consistent offensive strategies that don’t overly rely on Lamar Jackson’s scrambling ability might help reduce turnovers or mistakes under pressure. Similarly, strengthening the defense’s ability to close out games will be crucial.
From a broader perspective, the Ravens’ struggles underscore the fine margins that separate good teams from great teams in the NFL. Having talent and a winning history is not enough if a team can’t consistently finish games strong. The NFL is filled with examples of teams that looked promising but stumbled in critical moments, ultimately falling short of championships.
Meanwhile, the Bills’ rise to become the market favorites on Kalshi symbolizes their growth as a franchise. They have steadily built a team that can execute in crunch time and handle the immense pressure that comes with playoff expectations. Their ability to convert in these moments has earned them the respect of analysts, fans, and bettors alike.
For Ravens fans, there is still hope. The franchise has a strong culture, talented players, and a passionate fanbase. If they can identify and correct the issues that lead to those surprising losses, they could reclaim their spot among the league’s elite teams. The path forward involves learning from mistakes, making smart personnel decisions, and perhaps most importantly, maintaining confidence that they can win when the odds are heavily in their favor.
In the highly competitive landscape of the NFL, the difference between victory and defeat often comes down to a handful of plays. The Ravens’ eight losses in games where they had a 90% or greater chance to win since 2021 are a reminder of how unpredictable and challenging football can be. These setbacks have shaped the narrative around the team but also offer lessons and motivation to strive for better results.
As the Ravens continue their pursuit of a Super Bowl title, overcoming this trend will be essential. Fans will be watching closely to see how the team responds to these setbacks, how the coaching staff adapts, and how players like Lamar Jackson evolve in their ability to lead the team through adversity.
At the same time, the Bills’ ascent in the eyes of the betting markets is a testament to their progress and a signal to the rest of the league. The NFL is always evolving, and teams that can consistently win when favored have the best shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.
In the end, football is a game of momentum, resilience, and execution. The Ravens’ recent struggles with closing out games highlight the brutal nature of the league but also the potential for growth and redemption. Whether they can turn the page on this trend remains to be seen, but the challenges they face will only make any eventual success that much sweeter.
