Here’s a fresh take (flowing naturally, no headings) on how Super Bowl odds have shifted after Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season, along with a look at under-the-radar teams that could surprise when playoff time rolls around.
Coming out of Week 1, Kansas City has tightened its grip on the title odds, slipping from +500 to +450—a climb from about 16.7% to an implied 18.2% chance, reinforcing their status as early favorites post-opener ⸻ fans still expect greatness from Mahomes and Co. (SI).
In the NFC, San Francisco nudged forward too, squeezing from +600 down to +550, keeping them firmly in the mix as one of the top contenders (
Up in the AFC, Buffalo is seeing significant upward movement: after a dramatic comeback Week 1 win over Baltimore, their odds have dipped to anywhere between +450 and +700 across different books, suggesting growing confidence in their playoff ability—and in Josh Allen’s MVP-caliber form
Green Bay created early buzz, getting a statement win behind Micah Parsons, and slashed from +2200 to around +900 at one point—but then plummeted to +3000 after Jordan Love was diagnosed with an MCL sprain, clouding their early promise
The most dramatic risers so far include the Dallas Cowboys, who soared from +2000 to +1400, riding momentum from a dominant opener and the news of Dak Prescott’s four-year, $240 million extension Meanwhile, the Houston Texans mirror that jump exactly, also advancing from +1600 to +1400, quietly emerging as potential sleepersFurther down the odds board, the Miami Dolphins have tightened from +2500 to +2000, buoyed by a Week 1 comeback display
On the flip side, Baltimore slipped from +1000 to +1200 after their opener loss—still a contender, but taking a step bac. Even steeper was Cincinnati’s fall: once at +1300, now sitting at +2000 following a disappointing loss that exposed offensive issues
So, the big dogs remain—Chiefs, 49ers, Bills—but intriguing value is rising in Packers (if Love returns quickly), Cowboys, Texans, and Dolphins, while Ravens and Bengals may need to dig out.
Now, on to the intriguing part: teams flying under radar that could stir up chaos come January.
Houston stands out. Moving to +1400 indicates some public and oddsmaker faith, and if their dynamic offense and opportunistic defense continue to gel, they could be a sneaky wildcard run. Miami too—inching into +2000 territory, they’ve shown the grit and firepower to make noise if they stay hot.
Green Bay, longshots not, but if Love returns sooner than expected, Parsons continues to heat up, and the defense keeps up pace, they could seize the early edge in the NFC—even with a hole to climb from injury setbacks.
Dallas shouldn’t be ignored either. A new long-term QB deal buys stability, and if they sustain the Week 1 defensive pressure that carried them, they could make serious playoff noise even if odds are still longer than the elite tier.
Don’t forget Pittsburgh (at +5000). Rodgers flashed that he’s still capable of elite magic, and if the Steelers’ defense sharpens, the combination could offer funky upside—albeit risky.
There’s also some whisper-level hope for Denver. Though their odds are long (well into the teens of thousands), any spark from a defense-led rebound or Bo Nix touchdown-hefty RBs could make them that classic “darkest horse” story.
And lastly, Detroit. Though still within those top-tier teams, their odds haven’t popped nearly as much as the hype suggests. If they continue grinding wins in the tough NFC, their value will feel astronomically better when February rolls around.
So if you’re looking beyond the usual favorites, keep an eye on Texans, Dolphins, Packers (health-permitting), Cowboys (continuity-permitting), Steelers (defense-permitting), Denver (unlikely-getting-hot-permitting), and quietly, Detroit. Each brings a unique angle at value—whether through upside, undervaluation, or just plain grit.
Let me know if you want to peel back the canvas for any individual squad, dive into division-specific runs, or even project MVP futures. The ride’s just starting—and things always look different come Week 10, Week 15, and beyond.
