As the upcoming season dawns for the Atlantic Coast Conference, the usual suspects are re‑lining up for the hunt, and once again the spotlight shines brightest on three programs: Duke Blue Devils (Duke), Louisville Cardinals (Louisville) and North Carolina Tar Heels (UNC). While Duke once more enters as the heavy favourite, the Cardinals and Tar Heels are positioning themselves as serious challengers vying to disrupt the Blue Devils’ dominance. Between re‑building, resurgence and recalibration, this season promises to bring a compelling battle for ACC supremacy.
Duke begins once again atop the projection charts. According to the 2025‑26 ACC preseason poll, Duke claimed the No. 1 spot, picking up 34 of 49 first‑place votes with 866 total points. Despite losing five starters—including national player of the year and No. 1 NBA draft pick Cooper Flagg—the Blue Devils added the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class and return key pieces like Isaiah Evans and Maliq Brown.The challenge: a large roster turnover means chemistry and experience will matter more than ever. Head coach Jon Scheyer, just three years into his tenure, is charged with integrating fresh talent into a winning culture that has flagged only rarely in recent years.
Historically, Duke has set the tone in the ACC: they reached the national Final Four recently, posted 35 wins last season, and remain in a class of their own in many respects. The question now is: can those new pieces immediately step into big roles and maintain the Blue Devils’ dominance? Depth, adaptability and leadership will be tested across a schedule that doesn’t ease up, particularly in conference play.
But while Duke begins as the favourite, the Cardinals are quietly surging. Louisville enters the season with momentum and confidence. After a dramatic bounce‑back season under first‑year head coach Pat Kelsey, the Cardinals were selected to finish second in the ACC preseason poll. (SI) Their first season under Kelsey saw marked improvement—27‑8 overall and a return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. (SI) That kind of trajectory, paired with savvy recruiting and transfer portal moves, has sparked belief that Louisville can not just contend, but challenge for the top spot.
One key advantage for Louisville will be schedule alignment. The 2025‑26 ACC schedule has them facing Duke twice (home and away) in the regular season. (University of Louisville Athletic) That gives Louisville a built‑in head‑to‑head opportunity to test Duke and stake its claim for the conference crown. Having that direct path is meaningful: when the favourite slips, the challenger must be ready and Louisville appears positioned for that. The Cardinals bring a roster blending returning contributors with experienced transfers and talented newcomers, suggesting they might have the balance of continuity and fresh impact necessary to mount a real push.
Meanwhile, North Carolina rounds out the top three in the preseason poll, slotted third with 741 points. (University of North Carolina Athletics) The Tar Heels have long been synonymous with ACC tradition and success, and even in transitional phases remain dangerous. While Louisville may be the ascendant force and Duke the established powerhouse, UNC brings the pedigree and capacity to surge should things break their way.
So what will determine who ends up at the top of the ACC? A few key narrative threads emerge:
First, the integration of new talent and chemistry‑building. For Duke, the exit of major contributors opens big roles for fresh faces. Success will depend on how quickly they gel, especially in big games against league rivals and down the stretch. For Louisville, the question is sustainment: can they build on last season’s momentum, avoid regressions and execute consistently in the higher‑stakes games. For UNC, consistency and mid‑season improvement will be crucial: catching up to the incremental gains made by their rivals.
Second, the intra‑league head‑to‑head matchups. With Louisville and Duke playing each other twice, those games could shape the trajectory of the season. A Louisville victory in one or both of those tilts would send a message. But Duke knows how to show up in big moments — their dominance in tournament play and history of winning under pressure is well documented. For UNC, strong showings in those marquee games could validate their place among the elite this year.
Third, injuries, adaptability and depth. The regular‑season grind of the ACC is unforgiving. Duke’s veteran depth has been tested before, but integrating so many new players increases risk. Louisville will face the test of maintaining performance through the ups and downs of a long season. UNC must navigate its own challenges of competition for minutes, consistency and execution under pressure.
Fourth: psychological momentum. Louisville’s resurgence has confidence built in; coming off a strong turn‑around season gives belief and energy. Duke retains the aura of being the program to beat, which often gives a psychological edge. UNC, while major historically, must reaffirm itself after some uneven seasons. That belief factor might tip close games, especially in road environments and rivalry settings.
Turning to what the teams bring from a strengths‑and‑weaknesses lens: Duke’s strengths include elite recruiting, institutional culture, championship expectations and recent success. They will again be battle‑hardened mentally and enter each game as the hunted rather than the hunter. On the flip side, the departure of five key starters means there will be learning curves, potential growing pains, and pressure to perform immediately. The expectations may strain less‑experienced players.
Louisville’s advantages centre on upward trajectory, roster balance, schedule favourable to staking the claim, and renewed energy under Coach Kelsey. They may have fewer glaring weaknesses than some expect — perhaps a slight edge in continuity and cohesion relative to Duke’s turnover. However, sustaining that enthusiasm, avoiding distractions, and stepping up in big moments remain tasks. For UNC, their advantage is institutional pedigree, recruiting power, and the capacity to spike upward if things click. Their challenge is bridging the gap to the top two in a conference where the margin is razor‑thin.
One could envisage a scenario where Louisville exploits the home‑and‑away with Duke, takes momentum into late February and March, and flips the script. Alternatively, Duke could ride its culture, talent and big‑game experience to maintain supremacy, with Louisville and UNC playing for the runner‑up slot and maybe challenging late in the postseason. Or UNC could improve steadily, push into the top tier, but just fall short — yet still position itself as the team to beat in future seasons.
Beyond the regular season, conference tournament play will further influence the narrative. Duke’s ability to perform in high‑pressure tournament settings is established. Louisville’s recent rise suggests they could flip the script in that setting if they get hot. UNC may need to peak at the right time to make a statement. The ACC tournament often serves as a validation — or a breakout moment — for programs on the rise.
From a broader perspective, this season’s ACC race feels perhaps more competitive at the top than in years past. Oftentimes one team ran away with the league. This year, with Louisville’s resurgence and UNC’s presence, the margin for error shrinks for the favourite. Duke cannot simply rely on reputation — they will have to consistently execute and overcome internal changes. Louisville must prove they belong at the summit rather than just challenging. UNC must rediscover that top‑tier consistency.
For fans, the excitement is palpable. The narrative of the established heavyweight versus the rising challenger is compelling. Matchups like Duke vs Louisville will carry extra weight. Rivalries will have more at stake. Storylines of whether Louisville can dethrone Duke or UNC can re‑establish its dominance will drive interest throughout the season.
In short: Duke begins as the favourite and with good reason — they have the institutional foundation, talent and experience to lead. Louisville is the most credible threat, trending upward and aligned to make noise. UNC remains a serious competitor, with the tradition and potential to disrupt if things click. The battle for ACC dominance this season isn’t a foregone conclusion; it promises intrigue, big moments, and shifts in power dynamics.
From now until the final tip of the season, eyes will be on how Duke handles transition, how Louisville capitalises on momentum and schedule opportunities, and how UNC positions itself among the elite again. Whichever team gains the edge in those areas — cohesion, execution, head‑to‑head wins and resilience — will emerge as the conference champion.
If I were to cast a prediction: Duke will win the regular‑season title, but Louisville will challenge hard, possibly upsetting Duke in one of their meetings and setting up a battle in the tournament final where Louisville may take the crown. UNC will hover close but just fall short of the top two, setting the stage for next season. But in college basketball, certainty is rare — one injury, one hot streak, one collapse can change everything. And that uncertainty is part of what makes this race so compelling.
