Duke Basketball Now Sits Outside the Top Five in Expert’s 2025-26 Rankings: What This Means for the Program

Duke University basketball has long been one of the premier programs in college hoops. With its illustrious history of championships, NBA talent, and Hall of Fame coaching under Mike Krzyzewski, Duke has set the bar high in the world of college basketball. However, as the landscape of college basketball evolves, so too does the positioning of once untouchable programs like the Blue Devils.

In recent years, Duke has experienced its fair share of highs and lows. From the dominance of the Zion Williamson-led 2018-2019 team to more challenging seasons, including a disappointing exit in the 2023-2024 NCAA Tournament, it has become increasingly clear that the program is no longer the automatic powerhouse it once was. The latest indication of this shift is Duke’s fall outside the top five in expert 2025-2026 rankings.

This development begs the question: what has happened to Duke, and what does it mean for the future of the program? Is Duke’s slide down the rankings just a temporary setback, or is it a sign of deeper challenges within the program?

The Changing Landscape of College Basketball

One of the major factors influencing Duke’s place outside the top five is the rapidly evolving landscape of college basketball. The sport has undergone significant changes over the past decade, and the traditional powerhouses like Duke, Kentucky, and North Carolina have found themselves in more competitive waters than ever before.

The introduction of the one-and-done rule, which allows players to leave for the NBA after just one year of college, has had a profound impact on recruiting. For years, Coach K’s formula at Duke revolved around securing top-tier high school talent and getting them ready for the NBA in one year. This model worked for many seasons, leading to consistent tournament appearances, national titles, and a steady stream of players in the NBA.

However, the changing nature of recruiting, the increasing focus on the transfer portal, and the evolution of NIL (Name, Image, and Likeness) deals have altered the college basketball landscape. Programs that once relied on one-and-done players now have to adjust to the fact that players can stay for multiple seasons, or transfer in and out freely. This shift has given rise to new contenders who are able to build teams more sustainably, something that Duke has struggled with in recent years.

While Duke continues to recruit top-tier talent, the rapid changes in college basketball have created more parity in the sport. As a result, teams that may not have traditionally been national title contenders are now on more equal footing with blue blood programs like Duke.

The Impact of Coach K’s Retirement

Another major factor in Duke’s fall from the top five is the retirement of legendary head coach Mike Krzyzewski in 2022. Coach K had been the face of the Duke basketball program for over four decades, amassing five national championships and a record number of NCAA Tournament appearances. His leadership, recruiting prowess, and ability to develop talent were integral to Duke’s sustained success.

When Coach K retired, the program entered a new era under Jon Scheyer, a former Duke player and long-time assistant coach. Scheyer, while undoubtedly talented and knowledgeable, had big shoes to fill. He inherited a program that was still reeling from the transition away from Coach K’s shadow, and there were natural growing pains.

Though Scheyer’s first season as head coach in 2022-2023 showed promise, including a strong finish in the ACC Tournament and a Sweet 16 appearance, it also revealed some of the challenges he faced. His recruiting efforts were strong, but the team lacked the experience and leadership that Coach K’s veteran players often brought to the table. Additionally, the pressure of living up to Coach K’s legacy was ever-present, which added an extra layer of difficulty for Scheyer and the program.

By the time the 2024-2025 season rolled around, Duke was still adjusting to this new coaching regime, and the team’s performance on the court reflected that. While the Blue Devils boasted several talented young players, they struggled with consistency and chemistry. Scheyer, despite his potential as a coach, had yet to prove he could maintain the dynasty that Coach K built over decades.

This leadership transition, while necessary, has certainly impacted the program’s standing among the elite teams in college basketball.

Recruiting Challenges

Duke’s ability to recruit elite talent has always been a major part of the program’s success, but in recent years, this area has become more competitive. The rise of rival programs like Kentucky, Kansas, and even non-traditional powers like Arkansas and UCLA has made securing top prospects more difficult.

While Duke still consistently lands high-profile recruits, the program’s reliance on one-and-done players has come under scrutiny. Players who used to flock to Duke for a year of exposure and development before jumping to the NBA now have more options. Some opt to stay in college for multiple years to develop further, while others are drawn to schools with different styles of play or more appealing NIL deals.

Duke has also found itself competing with the transfer portal, which has allowed other schools to fill out their rosters with experienced players who can contribute immediately. Programs like Kansas and Baylor have used the portal effectively to strengthen their teams, while Duke has been slower to adapt.

In the 2025-2026 rankings, Duke’s standing reflects the difficulties they’ve had in recruiting in this new environment. While Duke still has a highly rated recruiting class, it lacks the game-changing star power that defined previous seasons. Programs like Kansas, Kentucky, and Michigan State have not only recruited well but also found ways to maximize the potential of both their incoming freshmen and transfer players. Duke’s struggle to put together a fully balanced roster in the modern era of college basketball has hurt its ranking.

The Strength of Rival Programs

Another important aspect of Duke’s slide in the rankings is the rise of rival programs that have made significant strides in recent years. While Duke’s stock has been somewhat stagnant, other programs have been elevating their game, making the ACC race and the national title chase far more competitive.

The University of North Carolina, Duke’s most bitter rival, has seen a resurgence after struggling in the late 2010s. Under head coach Hubert Davis, UNC has made great strides, particularly in terms of recruiting. They are now regularly landing top recruits and have been more successful in developing players who stay for multiple years. North Carolina’s recent performance in the NCAA Tournament, including a Final Four appearance, has solidified its place among the sport’s elite.

Similarly, teams like Kansas, Kentucky, and even Baylor have reasserted their dominance in the college basketball world. These programs have had more success in recruiting and have built teams that are deep and well-rounded, rather than relying on a few star players. Their ability to develop talent and adjust to the changing landscape has helped them maintain or improve their rankings, pushing Duke further down the list.

Evaluating the 2025-2026 Season

Heading into the 2025-2026 season, Duke still boasts a talented roster, but it lacks the level of certainty that often accompanies a top-five ranking. The Blue Devils will lean heavily on their younger players, but there are still questions about the team’s ability to perform at the highest level.

One of Duke’s biggest challenges this season will be finding leadership on the court. The team lost several key players to the NBA draft, and while it has a strong incoming class, the adjustment period for young players could lead to inconsistency. As much as Jon Scheyer has recruited well, there’s still uncertainty surrounding how these new players will gel together, especially in the highly competitive ACC.

Additionally, the Blue Devils will need to overcome their recent struggles in the NCAA Tournament. While Duke is always a team to watch in March Madness, their inability to consistently perform in high-pressure situations has hurt their overall reputation. If Duke is unable to make a deep tournament run this season, it may further erode the confidence of expert analysts who have moved them outside the top five.

What’s Next for Duke Basketball?

Despite being outside the top five in the expert rankings for the 2025-2026 season, Duke is far from a program in decline. The Blue Devils still have the resources, talent, and history to bounce back and reassert themselves as one of the top programs in college basketball.

For Jon Scheyer, the task now is clear: build a sustainable, championship-contending team that can compete with the likes of Kansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina in a rapidly evolving sport. It will take time, patience, and strategic adjustments to the recruiting landscape, as well as continued development of his players.

Whether Duke can return to the upper echelons of college basketball depends on how well it adapts to the changing dynamics of the sport. If Scheyer can successfully navigate the challenges of modern college basketball, there is every reason to believe that Duke will reclaim its place among the top programs in the country.

In the meantime, Duke fans and experts alike will be watching closely to see if the program can overcome its current challenges and recapture the magic that has made Duke one of the most successful and iconic teams in college basketball history.