Understanding the FPI’s Projections
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has stirred debate with its 2025 preseason projections for Notre Dame, assigning the Fighting Irish a 45.6% chance to make the College Football Playoff (CFP) and a projected record of 9.3–2.7. This assessment has raised eyebrows, especially considering Notre Dame’s recent appearance in the national championship game and the return of a strong roster.
The FPI is a predictive rating system developed by ESPN that estimates team strength and forecasts game and season outcomes. It considers factors such as returning starters, recruiting classes, past performance, and strength of schedule. For Notre Dame, the FPI’s projections suggest skepticism about the team’s ability to replicate or surpass its previous success.
Factors Influencing the FPI’s Outlook
Several elements may contribute to the FPI’s conservative projections for Notre Dame:
- Challenging Early Schedule: Notre Dame opens the season with back-to-back games against Miami (FL) and Texas A&M, both of which are projected to be formidable opponents. These early tests could significantly impact the team’s trajectory.
- Quarterback Transition: With the departure of their starting quarterback, Notre Dame will rely on a new signal-caller, either CJ Carr or Kenny Minchey. The uncertainty at this critical position may factor into the FPI’s cautious outlook.
- Strength of Schedule: While Notre Dame’s schedule is ranked 38th nationally, it’s still considered more challenging than their 2024 slate. The increased difficulty could influence the FPI’s projections.
Contrasting Perspectives
Despite the FPI’s projections, many analysts and fans believe Notre Dame is poised for another strong season. The team returns a majority of its talent from the previous year, including key contributors on both offense and defense. Additionally, the coaching staff, led by Marcus Freeman, has demonstrated the ability to develop and maximize player potential.
While ESPN’s FPI provides a data-driven perspective, it’s essential to consider the broader context of Notre Dame’s program. The combination of returning talent, coaching stability, and recent success suggests that the Fighting Irish have the potential to exceed the FPI’s projections and make a compelling case for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
