The landscape of NFL quarterback contracts is a high-stakes, ever-evolving game of chess, and few situations exemplify this more acutely than that of Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. While Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are focused on their own Super Bowl aspirations, their recent moves, particularly the signing of Jaire Alexander, send yet another powerful, albeit indirect, message to Prescott and the Cowboys. This message, rooted in performance, team building philosophy, and market value, could very well result in Prescott’s impending contract negotiations being influenced by millions of dollars.
To understand this dynamic, we must first look at the state of play for both quarterbacks and their respective teams.
Lamar Jackson, at 28 years old (as of current date), is in the prime of his career, fresh off his second NFL MVP award. He signed a five-year, $260 million deal with the Ravens in 2023, averaging $52 million per year. While this made him the highest-paid player at the time, the quarterback market has continued to inflate rapidly, with players like Josh Allen ($55M/year) and Trevor Lawrence ($55M/year) now slightly surpassing his average annual value. Dak Prescott, in fact, currently holds the highest average annual value for a quarterback at $60 million per year from his recent contract.
Despite this, Jackson’s contract is highly team-friendly in its structure, particularly in terms of guaranteed money relative to the total value, and it allowed the Ravens flexibility to continue building a formidable roster around him. The Ravens understand that the ultimate goal is a Super Bowl, and a roster laden with stars on both sides of the ball is essential.
Their recent flurry of defensive moves underscores this philosophy. The March acquisition of veteran cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, the drafting of promising rookie safety Malaki Starks in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and now the headline-grabbing signing of Jaire Alexander, a two-time All-Pro cornerback, are all calculated steps to create a dominant defense. These additions mean the Ravens now boast one of the deepest, most talented secondaries in the league, a crucial asset in a pass-happy NFL.
The Alexander signing, in particular, carries significant weight beyond just defensive prowess. Lamar Jackson publicly advocated for the move, demonstrating his trust in the front office and his desire to play with top-tier talent. The Ravens’ immediate response to his plea reinforces their commitment to Jackson and their “win now” mentality. This creates a positive feedback loop: a happy, well-supported franchise quarterback who attracts other talent, which in turn leads to a more competitive team.
Dak Prescott, at 32 years old (as of current date), finds himself in a very different, and increasingly precarious, contractual situation with the Dallas Cowboys. He signed a four-year, $240 million contract in 2024, which averages out to a league-high $60 million per year. However, the structure of this deal, coupled with previous restructures, means he carries an enormous $50.5 million cap hit in 2025 and a staggering $74 million cap hit in 2026. This financial burden is immense, tying up a significant portion of the Cowboys’ salary cap for a player who, despite his individual statistics, has yet to lead the team deep into the playoffs.
Prescott has a no-trade clause and is scheduled to become a free agent after the 2027 season. The Cowboys are faced with a monumental decision: extend him before his 2026 cap hit becomes truly crippling, or risk losing him for nothing (or trading him for less than market value if he waives his no-trade clause). Extending him now would likely mean another record-setting deal, pushing his average annual value even higher, potentially into the $65-$70 million range. The longer they wait, the higher the price tag will climb, as other quarterbacks (like Jordan Love, Trevor Lawrence, and potentially Tua Tagovailoa) sign extensions that continue to reset the market.
The Cowboys have traditionally operated with a philosophy of paying their stars, but often after protracted negotiations that create unnecessary drama. Their inability to advance past the Divisional Round with Prescott at the helm has led to increasing frustration among the fanbase and questions about whether he is truly the quarterback to deliver a Super Bowl to Dallas.
This is where the Ravens’ actions become a powerful, albeit indirect, message to Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, with millions of dollars on the line for both parties:
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Championship-First Approach vs. Individual Stat Padding: Lamar Jackson’s Ravens are demonstrating a commitment to building a championship team. By investing heavily in defense (Alexander, Awuzie, Starks) and key offensive pieces (Henry, Hopkins), they are showing that they prioritize overall roster strength over simply paying one player an exorbitant amount at the expense of other positions. The message to Prescott is clear: Winning is the ultimate currency. If the Cowboys continue to struggle in the playoffs while burdened by Prescott’s escalating contract, it undermines the value of that deal. Conversely, if Jackson leads the Ravens to a Super Bowl, his $52 million AAV will look like a bargain, while Prescott’s $60 million without similar team success will draw even more scrutiny. This could impact public perception and, more importantly, the Cowboys’ willingness to fully guarantee an even larger sum.
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Quarterback Influence and Team Building: Lamar Jackson’s public influence on the Jaire Alexander signing highlights a crucial aspect of modern NFL team-building: empowering your franchise quarterback to be part of the solution beyond just playing. Jackson wants to win, and he’s actively involved in attracting talent. This collaborative approach makes the Ravens a more desirable destination for free agents. The Cowboys, on the other hand, have often seemed to operate with a more top-down approach, leading to situations where stars (like Prescott himself during his initial long negotiation) feel less integrated into the long-term vision. If other top free agents see the Ravens actively building around their MVP, it makes Baltimore a more attractive destination than Dallas, impacting the Cowboys’ ability to acquire complementary pieces necessary for a deep playoff run.
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Market Dynamics and Leverage: The continuous inflation of the quarterback market, with Prescott currently at the top, creates a difficult situation for the Cowboys. Every new deal signed by a top-tier quarterback (like the recent extensions for Lawrence and potentially Tagovailoa in the near future) raises the floor for Prescott’s next contract. While Alexander’s contract directly affects a defensive player, the Ravens’ overall strategy of acquiring top talent (Alexander, Henry, Hopkins) while keeping Jackson’s cap hit manageable (for now) demonstrates a more efficient use of resources. This implicitly tells Prescott’s agent that there are ways to build a contender without solely pouring money into one position, potentially influencing how many years and how much full guarantee the Cowboys are willing to offer. The fact that Alexander reportedly turned down more money to play with Jackson and a contender is a powerful anecdote for any player considering their options.
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The “Super Bowl Tax” and Opportunity Cost: If the Cowboys are forced to give Prescott another record-breaking deal that limits their ability to retain or acquire other key players (e.g., CeeDee Lamb’s future contract, Micah Parsons’ extension), it becomes a significant opportunity cost. The Ravens are showing that spending wisely on other positions, even with an MVP quarterback, is critical. The “millions of dollars” at stake are not just in Prescott’s pocket but in the Cowboys’ ability to field a truly competitive roster around him. If Prescott pushes for a fully guaranteed deal that significantly handcuffs the team, and the Cowboys comply, they risk becoming a financially constrained team that cannot put enough talent around him to win a Super Bowl, thus devaluing the very contract they just signed.
The 2025 NFL season, and specifically the Cowboys’ performance, will be critical. If Dak Prescott finally leads Dallas to significant playoff success, it validates his current contract and gives him immense leverage for an even larger extension. However, if the Cowboys continue their cycle of regular-season success followed by early playoff exits, while Lamar Jackson and the Ravens thrive with a more balanced, talent-rich roster, the pressure on the Cowboys to re-evaluate their financial strategy will be immense. The implicit message from Baltimore is clear: championships are built with more than just one highly-paid player, and the cost of failing to understand that can be measured in not just wins and losses, but in tens, if not hundreds, of millions of dollars.
