Joey Aguilar, the quarterback for Tennessee football, is obviously outperforming the Vols even though he isn’t
Joey Aguilar is generating a lot of buzz as Tennessee’s quarterback, and it’s understandable why some folks claim he’s “obviously outperforming” the Vols even though he hasn’t yet taken a snap for the team. Let’s dig into the reality to unpack the hype, the statistical context, and why that narrative is flying—before the pads even go on.
To start, Aguilar comes to Tennessee on the strength of an impressive track record at Appalachian State. Over two seasons (2023–2024), he completed 511 of 850 passes—roughly 60%—for 6,760 yards, 56 touchdowns, and 24 interceptions. His 2024 line reads 218 completions on 390 attempts (55.9%), 3,003 yards, 23 TDs, and 14 picks (. He also ran for some yards (207 carries for 249 yards, with two rushing touchdowns) . Overall, he ranks fifth in career passing yards and touchdowns in App State history and led the FBS in total offense per game (288.5 yards) heading into 2025 That kind of production in the Sun Belt got attention—he was Sun Belt Newcomer of the Year, meme’d as one of the top 25 QBs nationally next season, and ranked No. 50 overall in preseason college player rankings
The buzz isn’t just numbers. At SEC Media Days, standout defensive back Arion Carter said of Aguilar: “He’s such a smart guy, very poised, very calm, collected dude… I wouldn’t change anything for the world to have him on our team” (SI). That kind of internal endorsement fuels the narrative that Aguilar brings leadership and temperament—a key asset stepping into a high-pressure environment like Tennessee.
He also benefits from timing. Nico Iamaleava, who led Tennessee to a 10-3 season and their first CFP berth, transferred to UCLA amid an NIL dispute Aguilar ended up swapping to Tennessee where he fills the void NFL simulation projections (College Football 26 video game) forecast Aguilar averaging over 4,400 passing yards and roughly 34 TDs per season—numbers many fans dream of ). And analysts like Ryan Sylvia say he is “properly rated” heading into spring camp, acknowledging valid concerns about his interception rate and limited SEC experienct Tennessee hasn’t played a down with him yet. Meanwhile, the Vols offense with Iamaleava in 2024 was dynamic: he threw 19 TDs, rushed six more, accumulated 2,616 passing yards, and led Tennessee to the College Football PlayoffIt wasn’t perfect—he had five INTs—but it’s proven, deep-pocketed in SEC grit and battle-tested.
By comparison, Aguilar’s numbers came against Sun Belt competition. He had above-average production but also threw 14 picks in 2024—that’s more than double Iamaleava’s interception total in 2024 at Tennessee. Aguilar will need to adapt to higher-level defenses, learn Josh Heupel’s system, and build chemistry with teammates in a compressed spring camp
In other words, fans praising Aguilar as outperforming the Vols have leapt early. The preseason accolades and simulation hype paint a glorified picture. But until the film is real—beginning August 30 in Atlanta against Syracuse—it’s speculative. For now, Aguilar gives Tennessee optimism: a polished transfer with FBS production, high praise from teammates, and strong preseason standing. But calling him to already be “outperforming” the Vols is premature. That’s projection—hope meets narrative—because everything we’ve seen so far is based on potential, not performance with this roster, in this system, in the SEC.
If Aguilar delivers close to the simulated output—4,400 passing yards, 34 TDs, sub-10 INTs, and healthy rushing contributions—then post-fact, the supporters were onto something. But expectations should be tempered: he comes with transitional hurdles, and SEC defenses won’t be Appalachia. Remember, last year Iamaleava went to CFP despite having fewer passing yards—showing that scheme fit, decision-making, and leadership in key moments can outweigh raw stats.
So yes, Aguilar has the pedigree and preseason shine to justify the excitement. But ascribing him a role of outperforming the Vols—even eclipsing Iamaleava before cutting pads—is oversell. He’s in position to thrive, and the team clearly believes in him. But whether he exceeds actual 2024 Vols-caliber play remains to be seen once real games begin.
In the end: it’s a prospect worth the buzz, not a proven quantity yet. High ceiling, credible resume, but no on-field Tennessee history. And until he performs under the lights and in crunch time against SEC opponents, the “outperforming” narrative stays in the realm of optimism.
What you’re seeing is classic preseason narrative: analytics, accolades, teammate enthusiasm, and hype loops. But Tennessee fans—and Joey himself—know games don’t lie. The real test begins in fall camp and shows itself on Saturdays. Then we’ll know whether that narrative was foresight… or fast-forward fantasy.
