Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction, Pick, Odds — April 25, 2025

Introduction

This Friday night matchup in Chavez Ravine is more than just a standard cross-division clash. It’s a meeting of two franchises with vastly different goals in 2025. On one side, the Los Angeles Dodgers are chasing yet another World Series banner. On the other, the rebuilding Pittsburgh Pirates hope to lay the foundation for future success behind their budding stars like Paul Skenes and Oneil Cruz.

While the Dodgers enter as clear favorites, games like this can shape young careers, rattle bettors, and surprise fans. Let’s dive into the most comprehensive breakdown of this April 25 matchup—from starting pitchers and betting odds to player form, advanced stats, and everything in between.

Pitching Matchup

Paul Skenes (RHP – PIT)

• Record: 2–2

• ERA: 2.87

• WHIP: 1.10

• Innings Pitched: 28.1

• Strikeouts: 30

• Opponent BA: .211

The former No. 1 overall pick out of LSU, Paul Skenes has lived up to the hype in his first month in the majors. Armed with a blazing fastball that regularly hits triple digits, Skenes also mixes in a power slider and developing changeup. In his last outing, he went seven innings against Cleveland, giving up just two earned runs while fanning eight.

He’s been especially dominant the first time through the order (.168 BAA), but has shown some vulnerability as pitch counts climb. Facing a disciplined Dodgers lineup will test his endurance, command, and mental focus in ways he hasn’t faced yet.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP – LAD)

• Record: 3–1

• ERA: 0.93

• WHIP: 0.88

• Innings Pitched: 29.0

• Strikeouts: 36

• Opponent BA: .174

What more can be said about Yamamoto? After signing a record-breaking $325M deal this offseason, he’s silenced any doubters with electric stuff, pinpoint command, and calm under pressure. He’s coming off a 7-inning, 10-strikeout gem against the Rangers.

His arsenal includes a mid-90s fastball, splitter, and curve, all tunneling effectively. With the Pirates struggling to hit quality offspeed pitches (.222 BA vs. splitters and curves), this could be a long night for their young lineup.

Pitching Edge: Dodgers

Team Comparison

Statistical Advantage: Dodgers (across the board)

Advanced Metrics & Analytics

Dodgers Key Metrics:

• wRC+: 118 (3rd)

• Hard-Hit %: 42.9% (2nd)

• BB%: 10.1% (4th)

• K% (batting): 19.5% (7th)

• ERA- (team): 73 (best in MLB)

The Dodgers’ combination of power, patience, and contact makes them lethal. Their ability to work counts and avoid chases will be critical in wearing down Skenes. With Betts and Freeman each walking over 12% of the time, Pittsburgh’s pitching staff must avoid free passes.

Pirates Key Metrics:

• wRC+: 89 (25th)

• Hard-Hit %: 36.0% (19th)

• K% (batting): 26.2% (28th)

• BABIP: .281 (league average)

• ERA- (team): 108 (24th)

The Pirates are still developing their offensive identity. While Reynolds and Cruz bring thump, the lineup’s strikeout tendencies and lack of lineup depth are concerning, especially against top-tier pitching.

Key Players to Watch

Dodgers

• Mookie Betts: Hitting .308 with 7 HR, 19 RBI, and 5 stolen bases. Elite leadoff production.

• Freddie Freeman: The model of consistency. .330 AVG, .410 OBP, 17 RBI.

• Shohei Ohtani: 6 HR, 20 RBI, and beginning to heat up after a slow start.

• Yamamoto: 0.93 ERA, elite command, and top 3 in strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Pirates

• Paul Skenes: The spotlight is on. The future face of the franchise.

• Bryan Reynolds: .288 AVG, 4 HR, 15 RBI — versatile offensive catalyst.

• Oneil Cruz: 5 HR, huge potential, but strikeouts remain an issue (29.1% K-rate).

• Ke’Bryan Hayes: Gold Glove defense, bat needs to catch up (.234 AVG).

Betting Breakdown

Spread:

• Dodgers -1.5 (+110)

• Pirates +1.5 (-130)

Moneyline:

• Dodgers -215

• Pirates +180

Over/Under:

• Total Runs: 7.0

• Over (-105), Under (-115)

Prop Bets to Consider:

• Yamamoto Over 7.5 Ks (+105)

• Skenes Under 6.5 Ks (-125)

• Freeman to hit a home run (+400)

• Total Hits Over 14.5 (-110)

Public Betting Trends:

• 78% of moneyline bets on Dodgers

• 64% of run line bets on Dodgers -1.5

• 57% of O/U bets on the Under 7.0

Manager Insights

Dave Roberts (Dodgers):

“We’re starting to gel. The pitching is clicking, and the bats are doing damage. But Skenes is no joke. We’ve got to respect his stuff and stay disciplined.”

Derek Shelton (Pirates):

“We’re still growing, but we want to compete every night. Paul’s got electric stuff—we just need to give him some run support and play clean defense.”

Historical Matchup

• 2024 Season: Dodgers won 5 of 6

• 2023 Season: Dodgers swept Pirates in 3-game home set

• All-Time Record: Dodgers lead 1,129–1,006

• At Dodger Stadium (Last 10): Dodgers 9–1

Prediction & Pick

• Final Score: Dodgers 5, Pirates 2

• Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 (+110)

• Runner-Up Bet: Under 7 Total Runs (-115)

• MVP Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 K

While Skenes is a budding ace, the Dodgers are simply too deep, too disciplined, and too experienced. Yamamoto should continue his dominant stretch, and the Dodgers’ lineup will likely do enough to push a few runs across and win comfortably.

Season Implications

For the Dodgers:

• A win keeps them on top in the competitive NL West.

• Reinforces Yamamoto’s Cy Young candidacy.

• Builds momentum heading into May.

For the Pirates:

• Even in defeat, a strong Skenes outing could boost confidence.

• Could trigger early discussions about roster shake-ups or veteran trades.

• Key litmus test for young talent development under pressure.

The contrast in these two organizations is sharp—but that’s what makes this matchup fascinating. The Pirates are building something new; the Dodgers are refining a machine. Whether this turns into a blowout or a close pitchers’ duel depends on how much resistance Pittsburgh can muster against the Yamamoto-Ohtani-Betts juggernaut.

Best Viewing Time: First pitch at 10:10 PM ET — tune in early to catch Yamamoto and Skenes square off from the very first pitch. This could be a preview of many great matchups to come in the years ahead.