Is Duke Basketball the Early Favorite to Win the 2026 NCAA Championship?

Introduction: Blue Blood Rising

The landscape of college basketball is constantly shifting. Coaching changes, player transfers, and elite freshman classes make the NCAA Tournament unpredictable each season. Still, some programs always find a way to remain at the forefront of championship conversations. As we look ahead to the 2025–26 college basketball season, Duke University—under third-year head coach Jon Scheyer—has emerged as the early favorite to win the 2026 NCAA Championship.

With sportsbooks and analysts placing Duke atop their future odds boards, and a roster loaded with returning talent and elite recruits, many believe the Blue Devils are on the verge of adding another title to their storied history. But what makes Duke such a strong contender? Can they overcome the pressure and competition to cut down the nets in April 2026?

This article breaks down Duke’s championship outlook in detail: examining their projected roster, recruiting class, returning players, coaching strategy, and challenges ahead.

Duke’s Championship Pedigree and Scheyer’s Early Success

Since Mike Krzyzewski’s retirement in 2022, there were questions about whether Duke could sustain its dominance. Jon Scheyer, a former Blue Devil player and longtime assistant, took the reins and immediately showed he could keep the program among the nation’s elite.

In just a few seasons, Scheyer has:

• Recruited top-three recruiting classes every year
• Made multiple Sweet 16 and Final Four appearances
• Developed NBA-level talent like Kyle Filipowski, Dereck Lively, and Cooper Flagg
• Reestablished Duke’s identity as a two-way powerhouse—built on shooting, spacing, and defensive pressure

Under Scheyer, Duke finished the 2024–25 season with a 35–4 record, winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles. The team made it to the Final Four, narrowly losing to Houston 70–67. Despite the loss, Duke proved they were just a few plays away from a national title.

Now, with a mix of returning leaders and a top-ranked freshman class, the Blue Devils enter 2025–26 with more depth, experience, and talent than perhaps any other team in the nation.

The 2025–26 Duke Roster: A Dangerous Blend of Experience and Fresh Blood

Returning Core Players

While Cooper Flagg, a consensus top-2 pick, is expected to leave for the NBA, Duke will still retain several key contributors:

• Tyrese Proctor (Senior PG): One of the best playmakers in the country. Proctor’s decision to return was huge—his ability to control tempo, defend, and shoot from deep gives Duke a veteran leader at the point.
• Jared McCain (Junior SG): A sharp-shooter with NBA range and toughness. McCain averaged over 15 points per game and became a fan favorite for his clutch shot-making and effort.
• Mark Mitchell (Senior SF): A two-way wing who can guard multiple positions and contribute offensively. His length and experience will be critical on the defensive end.
• Sean Stewart (Junior PF): A developing big man with elite athleticism and rim protection. Stewart is expected to play a much larger role this season.

Incoming Freshman Class: Possibly the Nation’s Best

Scheyer continues to dominate the recruiting trail. The 2025 class is loaded with five-star talent, including:

• Cameron Boozer (6’9” PF, Miami): Son of former Duke star Carlos Boozer, Cameron is a polished, physically mature power forward with incredible touch around the rim and the ability to stretch the floor. Projected as a top-3 NBA Draft pick.
• Cayden Boozer (6’3” PG, Miami): Cameron’s twin brother, Cayden is a tough, pass-first point guard with elite vision and floor leadership.
• Koa Peat (6’8” SF, Arizona): A physical wing who can score at all three levels. Strong defender, NBA-ready body, and a proven winner in high school.
• Jayden Quaintance (6’10” C, Kentucky): A mobile big man with elite shot-blocking and rebounding instincts. He gives Duke a legit presence in the paint.
• Joson Sanon (6’5” SG, Vermont): A combo guard with explosiveness and creative scoring ability. Likely to come off the bench and provide energy.

The Boozer twins have already shown excellent chemistry on the court, and with a blend of size, skill, and defense, this class could go down as one of Duke’s best ever.

Scheyer’s System: Modernizing Duke Basketball

One reason for Duke’s early-favorite status is how well Jon Scheyer’s coaching philosophy aligns with modern basketball trends:

1. Spacing and Shooting

Duke under Scheyer has prioritized three-point shooting, off-ball movement, and spacing. They led the ACC in made threes last season and shot over 38% from deep.

With Proctor, McCain, and Cayden Boozer spacing the floor, and Cameron Boozer operating in the post and midrange, Duke can score at every level.

2. Defensive Switchability

Scheyer emphasizes defense. The Blue Devils deploy long, versatile defenders at every position, making them difficult to attack in isolation. Stewart, Mitchell, and Quaintance give them elite rim protection and rebounding.

3. Depth and Rotation Flexibility

The 2025–26 team is 10–11 players deep, giving Scheyer the ability to adjust to matchups. He can go small with five shooters, or big with multiple forwards. This flexibility is rare and dangerous come March.

The Road to the Championship: What Could Stop Duke?

While Duke is the favorite, several factors could derail their run:

1. Team Chemistry and Role Clarity

With so many high-profile freshmen and returners, managing minutes and egos will be crucial. Can Cameron Boozer coexist with established stars like McCain and Proctor? Will Stewart accept a smaller offensive role? These are delicate dynamics that Scheyer must manage early.

2. Other Contenders Emerging

Several programs could challenge Duke’s supremacy:

• Houston: Returning most of the Final Four team that beat Duke in 2025, including veteran guard Jamal Shead.
• Purdue: Loaded with seniors and adding a five-star big man to replace Zach Edey.
• Kansas: With Hunter Dickinson returning for a rare fifth season and elite transfers arriving, Bill Self’s squad will be elite.
• UConn: The defending champions in 2023 and 2024, UConn is never far from the conversation under Dan Hurley.

Duke’s road to a title will not be easy. Every team will bring their best.

3. Health

Injuries can derail even the most talented teams. Duke’s depth helps mitigate this, but a key injury to a player like Proctor or Boozer would significantly hurt their title chances.

Betting Odds and National Outlook

As of June 2025, most sportsbooks have Duke listed between +900 and +1000 to win the 2026 NCAA Championship. That places them ahead of:

• Houston (+1000)
• Purdue (+1200)
• Kansas (+1300)
• UConn (+1400)
• Kentucky (+1600)

Betting markets reflect both Duke’s talent and public confidence in the program. With a blend of blue-chip freshmen and experienced upperclassmen, few teams offer such a complete package.

Legacy on the Line: Can Duke Win Their Sixth Title?

Duke has won five national championships (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, and 2015). With the 2026 season looming, this team has a chance to add a sixth—tying programs like UNC and UConn in total titles.

More importantly, it would establish Jon Scheyer as one of the premier coaches in college basketball. Winning a championship just four years into his tenure would silence critics and validate Duke’s succession plan after Coach K.

It would also be a crowning moment for Cameron Boozer, potentially ending his one-and-done season with a national title and top-three NBA Draft selection.

Why Duke Deserves the Early Favorite Label

The 2025–26 Duke Blue Devils are positioned for greatness. Between a top-ranked recruiting class, All-American returners, and a modern coaching philosophy, there’s little not to like. While challenges will arise and the competition will be fierce, Duke has the blueprint for success:

• Elite Talent
• Veteran Leadership
• Depth
• Coaching Stability
• Winning Culture

In a sport defined by chaos and unpredictability, Duke stands out as the most balanced and prepared team heading into the new season.

Unless something dramatically changes between now and March 2026, the Blue Devils won’t just be contenders—they’ll be the standard everyone else is chasing.