The Edmonton Oilers face the most critical decision of their season, perhaps of their franchise’s recent history, as they prepare for Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final. Trailing 3-2 to the formidable Florida Panthers, every choice, every substitution, and every single save will be scrutinized under the harsh glare of elimination. At the heart of their predicament lies the goaltending dilemma: should they stick with the “hot hand” in Calvin Pickard, who started Game 5, or revert to their established starter, Stuart Skinner? Coach Kris Knoblauch has remained tight-lipped, a testament to the weight of the decision.
To understand the complexity, one must look at the rollercoaster ride that has been the Oilers’ goaltending throughout the 2024 playoffs. Stuart Skinner, the clear number one coming into the postseason, has had moments of brilliance interspersed with stretches of inconsistency. His playoff statistics (7-6 record, 2.99 GAA, .891 SV% in 14 starts) reflect this volatile performance. He was pulled in Games 3 and 4 of the Final against the Panthers after struggling, giving up 5 goals on 23 shots in Game 3 and 3 goals on 17 shots in the first period of Game 4. Yet, Skinner has also shown resilience, bouncing back from previous struggles earlier in the playoffs, notably after being replaced by Pickard in the first round against the Kings. He then went on a strong run, including two shutouts against the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round, leading the Oilers to the Stanley Cup Final.
On the other hand, Calvin Pickard has been the unlikely hero, stepping in when needed and providing a spark. He has a remarkable 7-1 record in 10 playoff appearances (7 starts) with a 2.85 GAA and an .886 SV%. His save percentage might be lower than Skinner’s, but his record speaks volumes about the team’s ability to win with him in net. Pickard’s relief appearance in Game 4 of the Final was pivotal, as he stopped 22 of 23 shots to help the Oilers rally for a 5-4 overtime victory.1 This performance certainly made him the “hot hand” going into Game 5.
However, Game 5 was Pickard’s first loss of the postseason, a 5-2 defeat where he allowed four goals on just 18 shots. While Coach Knoblauch defended Pickard’s performance, citing high-danger chances and screens, the numbers are undeniable. This loss dulls the shine of the “hot hand” argument and brings Skinner back into the conversation with renewed urgency.
The “hot hand” argument, while seductive in sports, often oversimplifies a complex reality. While Pickard’s previous success in relief and in his starts prior to Game 5 was undeniable, it doesn’t guarantee future performance, especially in the high-stakes environment of a Game 6 on the road in the Stanley Cup Final. The Panthers, after all, are a relentless forechecking team that generates a lot of quality chances, regardless of who is in net. They made Pickard’s life difficult in Game 5, and they will do the same to Skinner.
Trusting Stuart Skinner again, despite his recent struggles, relies on a few key factors. First, it acknowledges that Skinner has historically been the primary starter for a reason. He has a more extensive track record as an NHL starter and has handled significant pressure before, particularly in their previous series wins. The hope would be that a short rest and a chance to reset would allow him to tap into the form that saw him excel earlier in the playoffs. Skinner’s resilience is a noted quality, and the Oilers’ coaching staff might believe he is due for a bounce-back performance when the team’s back is truly against the wall. It’s a gamble on character and the ability to perform under extreme pressure.
Furthermore, there’s the psychological aspect for the team. While the players have publicly supported both goaltenders, there’s a certain comfort in consistency. Reverting to Skinner for Game 6, despite his previous pulls in the series, could signal a renewed faith from the coaching staff, potentially rallying the team around their established starter. It could also be a strategic move to confuse the Panthers, forcing them to re-evaluate their shooting tendencies and game plan after facing Pickard in Game 5.
However, the counter-argument for sticking with Pickard is equally compelling. Despite the Game 5 loss, Pickard had been an undeniable factor in the Oilers’ playoff success up to that point. His calm demeanor and ability to make crucial saves, especially in high-danger situations, had been a significant asset. Game 5’s goals against him might have been more a reflection of the Panthers’ offensive prowess and defensive breakdowns in front of him, rather than a catastrophic individual performance. If the Oilers’ offense can find its rhythm again, Pickard might only need to be “good enough” to steal a game. Keeping him in net would continue the momentum of the decision that led to the Game 4 victory and suggest that the coaching staff isn’t prone to panic.
The danger of changing goalies now, after Pickard started Game 5, is that it could send a mixed message to the team. It could imply a lack of confidence in Pickard after his first playoff loss, potentially deflating a group that has shown remarkable resilience. The Oilers need unwavering belief heading into Game 6, and a goaltending switch could inadvertently create doubt.
Ultimately, the decision rests on Coach Knoblauch’s assessment of both goalies’ mental and physical states. Is Skinner truly ready to shoulder the immense pressure of Game 6 on the road, knowing he has been pulled twice already in this series? Has Pickard shaken off the Game 5 loss, and can he continue his run of timely saves?
Given the stakes, the Oilers need a goaltender who can provide at least adequate, if not spectacular, goaltending, and ideally, one who can steal a save or two. The Panthers are relentless, and Sergei Bobrovsky on the other side has been a brick wall for much of the series. The Oilers’ star power, particularly from Connor McDavid, can generate offense, but they need their goaltender to give them a chance.
Considering all factors, including Skinner’s overall playoff statistics that show him performing slightly better than Pickard in terms of save percentage and GAA, and his history of bouncing back, the safer, albeit riskier, bet might be to trust Stuart Skinner again. The rationale is that Skinner has been the Oilers’ horse for the majority of the regular season and playoffs. His mental fortitude, when he’s on, is strong, and a Game 6 elimination scenario might be the exact crucible to bring out his best. He has experienced the highs and lows of this playoff run more extensively than Pickard, and he has successfully navigated slumps before. The team needs their number one to perform when it matters most, and this is Skinner’s chance to cement his legacy and give his team a fighting chance to force a Game 7. It’s a high-stakes gamble on the proven, albeit sometimes inconsistent, starter to rise to the occasion.
