They’ll meet again Sunday night, McCarthy vs. Penix — another chapter after the one they wrote in Houston where Michigan and Washington clashed for the National Championship. Back then, J.J. McCarthy and the Wolverines came away with a decisive win; this time, the stakes are different, but the ghosts of that game will be everywhere.
In January 2024, Michigan, led by McCarthy, defeated Washington, led by Michael Penix Jr., 34‑13 in the CFP National Championship. (Wikipedia) Michigan struck early—Donovan Edwards breaking free for two long touchdown runs in the first quarter to set a tone. McCarthy managed the game, not flashy but efficient. Washington tried to lean on Penix’s aerial chops, on his ability to make tight throws, throw timing, rhythm, but Michigan’s defense largely neutralized him. Penix finished 27 of 51, about 255 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. (Wikipedia) Michigan ran hard, had control in the trenches, and Washington could never really turn the corner.
Now, Sunday night brings a rematch of quarterbacks, though in different uniforms and a very different context. McCarthy is now in the NFL with the Minnesota Vikings; Penix is with the Seattle Seahawks. The comparison isn’t perfect—NFL is a different beast—but their histories will shape what everyone watching expects. McCarthy’s championship pedigree will follow him; people will expect poise, efficient decision‑making, perhaps a game‑manager style with big plays sprinkled in. Penix will carry with him both the scars of that loss and the confidence from how prolific he had been prior to the title game, how he had torched defenses to get Washington that far. (The Hill)
What makes this rematch compelling is not just the narrative of redemption or proving something, but the adjustments both will have made since. McCarthy showed last time he can execute a gameplan: protect the football, lean on the run game, capitalize on Washington miscues. Penix showed that he can light up defenses (e.g. the Sugar Bowl semifinal vs. Texas, where he threw for 430 yards and led a gritty win to reach the championship game). (The News Tribune)
Expect Penix to try to stretch the field, force mismatches, work on timing with his receivers — look for deep shots, but also for quick reads if pressure comes. He’ll hope his offensive line holds up better this time, that the Seahawks can adjust protection, that his receivers win their matchups. Contrarily, McCarthy and his offense will likely try to impose physicality, lean on balance, establish the run to open up play‑action, make sure he’s not forced into many tight windows early.
Defensively, for whoever faces Penix, the goal will be to limit his big plays. In the title game Michigan did just that—Washington had much of its yardage through the air, but explosive, game‑changing plays were few, and turnovers came at bad moments. (Wikipedia) The pass rush will be key, getting to Penix, disrupting rhythm. On the other side, limiting the run and making McCarthy beat you by arm may open up risk for McCarthy, if Seattle can bring pressure or force him off his rhythm.
There’s also the mental game: Penix likely carries some added motivation from the championship loss, a chance to silence doubters who say he folded under pressure; McCarthy will want to reaffirm that the outcome in Houston wasn’t a fluke. But McCarthy also has to deal with expectations—being that guy who already has a national title, now playing in the NFL, and many will expect the same kind of controlled performance.
Special teams, turnovers, penalties—those tend to be the margin in tight quarterback‑matchups. In the 2024 championship, Washington dropped some balls, had a few miscommunications; anything similar Sunday night could swing momentum. Also, depending on injuries, game flow, weather or field conditions (if outdoors), adjustments matter. Penix was seen limping or stiff at one point in the title game after hits; durability and comfort in the pocket will be under scrutiny. (The Salt Lake Tribune)
Sunday night provides Penix a chance at narrative redemption, to show that the championship loss didn’t define him; for McCarthy, it’s a chance to show his championship mindset carries over to the pros. But winning in the NFL is different—faster pace, more complex defenses, less margin for error. If McCarthy can protect the ball, use his mobility if needed, avoid big turnovers, he likely plays in similar fashion to his championship game: efficient, poised, opportunistic. If Penix catches fire early, makes good decisions under pressure, this could be explosive.
Ultimately, while the result in Houston tipped the psychological scales toward McCarthy, Sunday night is a new stage. It’s not a national title for either, so stakes are lower, but pride, reputations, momentum are on the line. Whoever adjusts better, who stays sharp under pressure, who has help around them in coaching, pass protection, receiver separation — that likely determines the outcome.
If I were to predict: McCarthy does just enough, leans on his strengths, keeps the game close, limits mistakes. Penix, if he’s on, can make it interesting, maybe even steal one, but he has less margin for error than McCarthy, given what people expect from him now.
I’ll be watching to see if Penix’s deep ball returns with its full flourish, if McCarthy shows more improvisation or takes shots downfield early, and how their supporting casts perform. Regardless of the outcome, this match‑up replays one of the biggest games in recent college football history, with new stakes, new players around them, and a chance for both to add another chapter to their legacy.
