Urban Meyer Predicts 10-2 Finish for Ohio State in 2025: Realistic Outlook or Undersell?

Former national champion head coach Urban Meyer has never shied away from strong takes, especially when it comes to his old stomping grounds in Columbus. This spring, he delivered one that sent a ripple through Buckeye Nation: a prediction that Ohio State would finish the 2025 regular season at 10-2.

Coming off a national championship campaign in 2024, Ohio State fans are hoping for continued dominance. But Meyer, always the pragmatist, believes this team will be elite—just not undefeated. His rationale? Talent remains in place, but with coordinator changes, new locker room leadership, and a brutal schedule, a couple of stumbles may be inevitable.

Why Urban Thinks 10-2 Is the Magic Number

Speaking on his podcast The Triple Option, Meyer said he believes Ohio State will be one of the top teams in college football again, but he flagged two factors that could cause hiccups: new defensive coordinator Matt Patricia and the program’s brutal 2025 schedule.

“The talent’s there. This might be the most loaded Ohio State team in years, top to bottom,” Meyer said. “But the Patricia hire—look, he’s smart, but college football isn’t the NFL. That’s a big transition. And let’s be honest: the schedule is no joke.”

Ohio State opens the season against Texas—a College Football Playoff team last year—and still has to deal with Big Ten heavies Penn State and Michigan, plus a potential rematch with Oregon or USC in the conference championship game.

Breaking Down the 2025 Schedule

Let’s dive into why Meyer might be bracing for a 10-2 finish.

• Week 1: at Texas
  The Longhorns are loaded and have unfinished business after their 2024 playoff run ended in heartbreak. This is a massive test for a Buckeyes team replacing several defensive starters and adjusting to Patricia’s new scheme.
• Week 7: at Penn State
  Always a tough environment, Beaver Stadium could be a trap game if the Buckeyes are still settling in mid-season.
• Week 13: vs. Michigan
  This one needs no introduction. Ohio State beat Michigan in 2024 to reclaim Big Ten supremacy, but Jim Harbaugh’s replacement will be hungry to take it back.

Any of these games could result in losses—hence the two-loss projection Meyer dropped.

Who’s Leading the 2025 Buckeyes?

Despite the departures of several NFL draftees, including quarterback Devin Brown and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, the roster remains ridiculously loaded. Perhaps most notably, five-star freshman quarterback Julian Sayin, a transfer from Alabama, is expected to lead the offense.

Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who exploded as a true freshman with over 1,300 yards and 12 touchdowns, might already be the best WR in college football. With Hartline still calling plays, Meyer is confident the offense will be fine:

“The offensive identity isn’t changing much. It’s the same system that’s developed guys like Olave, Wilson, Smith-Njigba, Harrison. Sayin just needs to be smart with the football.”

On defense, five-star linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa is poised to be the emotional and physical centerpiece. The question, as Meyer noted, is how Patricia transitions to the college game—particularly in adapting to uptempo spread offenses that dominate the Big Ten.

Urban’s History of Predicting OSU

Meyer is a uniquely positioned voice when it comes to assessing Ohio State. He knows what it takes to win in Columbus and has seen teams fall short due to off-field noise or locker room issues. When he makes a prediction—especially one that isn’t blindly optimistic—fans and media take notice.

That said, Meyer has been conservative in previous predictions. In 2021, he downplayed Ohio State’s CFP chances under C.J. Stroud’s early leadership—only for Stroud to become a Heisman finalist and top NFL pick. Still, Meyer has also correctly predicted some growing pains, especially when it comes to coordinator changes and leadership shifts.

Fan Reaction: Shock, Doubt, and a Bit of Agreement

The reaction to Meyer’s 10-2 projection was, predictably, mixed. Some fans believe he’s just playing it safe, lowering expectations. Others feel he might actually be spot-on.

“It’s easy to say ‘We’re winning it all again,’ but look at that schedule. If we split Michigan and Texas and maybe slip at Penn State, 10-2 is very reasonable,” one fan posted on the Eleven Warriors message board.

Others were less convinced:

“With this roster? Anything less than 11-1 feels like a disappointment. Meyer sounds like he’s trying to cover for Patricia before things go south.”

National Perspective: Still a CFP Contender?

Even with two losses, Ohio State would likely remain in CFP contention under the expanded 12-team format. A 10-2 Buckeyes squad with competitive losses to top-10 teams would likely earn an at-large bid. The question becomes: would they be peaking at the right time?

The postseason landscape is changing fast. With more flexibility in how teams make the playoff, the old mantra of “must go undefeated” is dying. Urban seems to understand this shift—10-2 with a conference title game appearance might be all you need to keep dancing.

Meyer’s Long-Term View: Ohio State Still Elite

Despite his tempered prediction, Meyer made it clear that Ohio State’s long-term outlook remains as bright as ever. The program continues to dominate recruiting, especially at the skill positions, and Ryan Day’s infrastructure is humming.

“They’re still the standard in the Big Ten, and maybe in college football overall,” Meyer said. “A 10-2 year doesn’t change that if it’s part of a larger championship window.”

Could 10-2 Be a Setup for a Deep Playoff Run?

It’s worth noting: some of college football’s best stories have begun with adversity. Georgia in 2022. Alabama in 2021. Even Ohio State in 2014, under Meyer himself. A team that takes early lumps and finishes strong is often more dangerous than a frontrunner with no scars.

If Ohio State enters the playoff as a lower seed and gets a second crack at a team like Texas or Michigan, they may be in better shape than people realize.

Is Urban Right?

Whether you agree with his 10-2 forecast or not, Urban Meyer’s analysis has depth. He sees the big picture: talent wins games, but culture and experience win championships. And in 2025, with some volatility around the coaching staff and schedule, a couple of close losses could be the cost of sustained greatness.

Even if Meyer’s prediction comes true, the Buckeyes are still likely playoff-bound—and perhaps even more battle-tested than they were in their title run.

The bottom line? Don’t mistake 10-2 for a letdown. It might just be the start of another trophy chase in Columbus.